stat.MLJun 16, 2026

When Does Trajectory-Level Supervision Permit Efficient Offline Reinforcement Learning?

Authors: Xuanfei RenTengyang Xie

Organizations: University of Wisconsin-Madison · Madison, WI

Abstract

Offline reinforcement learning is typically analyzed under process-level reward supervision, yet many sequential decision datasets record only trajectory-level outcomes. We develop a statistical theory for offline policy optimization from such outcome-level supervision. We first study the canonical setting where the target remains the expected cumulative reward, but each offline trajectory provides only a scalar label whose conditional mean is the cumulative return. We propose OPAC, a pessimistic actor-critic algorithm that learns a latent reward model and optimizes a policy from trajectory-level labels. We prove a high-probability guarantee of order O~(H2Csa(π)/n)\widetilde O(H^2\sqrt{C_{sa}(π^\star)/n}) and a matching lower bound, characterizing the sharp statistical cost of replacing process-level rewards with one trajectory-level label. We then extend the principle to preference-based feedback, preserving the leading horizon and concentrability dependence up to preference-model constants. Finally, we study generalized outcome-based offline RL, where both the supervision and the objective are trajectory-level quantities induced by a nonlinear aggregation of latent per-step rewards. This problem is not learnable in general: for all-success objectives, any offline learner may require Ω(2H)Ω(2^H) trajectories even with deterministic transitions and constant concentrability. We then identify a tractable regime through two structural coefficients, κμ(σ)κ_μ(σ) and χμ(σ)χ_μ(σ), capturing information loss in outcome aggregation and generalized Bellman updates, under which generalized OPAC achieves polynomial sample complexity. Together, our results delineate when outcome-level supervision enables sample-efficient offline control and when missing process-level rewards create fundamental statistical barriers.

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