Bridging Data Gaps in Structural Fragility Modeling through Transfer Learning: Methodology and Case Studies

Modern machine learning pipelines increasingly rely on reusing pretrained and foundation models across downstream tasks. These pretrained models can differ not only in performance but also in how they can be used: some only provide black-box predictions, while others may permit white-box access to internal representations that can be probed or fine-tuned. When deployed to the target domain in the presence of distribution shift, no single strategy, including zero-shot application, fine-tuning, or directly training a target-specific model, is uniformly the best. In this work, we propose Frontier Learning, a framework that treats a library of candidate models spanning different training histories and access regimes as complementary sources of information rather than mutually exclusive alternatives. Frontier Learning constructs a unified target-domain feature by concatenating internal representations from white-box candidates as well as prediction outputs from black-box candidates, then fits a lightweight, regularized supervised learner on this concatenated representation using labeled target data. Because the resulting hypothesis class contains predictors obtained by zero-shot reuse, fine-tuning, and direct training as special cases, empirical risk minimization over the frontier learner is guaranteed to be no worse, on the training sample, than any individual baseline. We evaluate the framework in simulations spanning varying degrees of source-target compatibility and in two real-world distribution-shift settings: visual domain adaptation on DomainNet/VisDA and clinical mortality prediction across intensive care unit domains using MIMIC-IV-Notes. Across all settings, Frontier Learning matches or outperforms the strongest individual reuse strategy, with the largest gains arising precisely when no single baseline is reliable across the range of shift considered.

Transfer learning explores how to leverage knowledge from various tasks or domains (sources) to enhance predictive performance in related tasks or domains (targets). Typically, transfer learning research is segmented into several isolated sub-areas (such as domain generalisation, domain adaptation, or multi-domain learning), each making distinct assumptions about target data availability, namely how much data and how many labels are available at training time. However, in many real-world applications, data availability is not fixed but evolves over time, as instances and labels are progressively collected from a new domain. Each of the classical settings then describes only a snapshot of a trajectory that a deployed system must traverse in full. We formalise this trajectory as a transfer learning problem in its own right, Transfer Learning for Evolving Domains (TrED), specified by a data availability process fixed by the environment, a learning protocol that the method is free to choose, and an evaluation criterion that scores the whole trajectory of models rather than a single one. Within this formalism, the classical settings are recovered as regimes that a learner may pass through, rather than as separate problems that TrED concatenates. We then examine the transfer learning literature to identify mechanisms that are promising building blocks for a solution, and find that most methods are tailored to a single regime and that even the strongest existing candidates do not yet optimise the whole trajectory. We argue that TrED is a well-posed and unsolved problem, and an important direction for future research.

Newly triggered landslides rarely carry immediate annotations, so cross-domain transferability determines the value of landslide mapping for emergency response and regional risk assessment. Vision foundation models have strengthened representational transfer, yet on unseen regions, events, and data sources they still generate high-confidence false alarms. Terrain, material, and rainfall triggering can constrain such errors, but their supports are local, regional, and event-scale, so that resampling onto a 10~m grid misaligns them with the segmentation decision unit and compounds the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP). We propose GeoPhysAdapter, which anchors on a frozen vision foundation model, restricts terrain, material, and triggering to dense spatial guidance, regional modulation, and event-timing forcing, and applies bounded adaptation at two decision units, the pixel and the candidate landslide body, reverting exactly to the visual prediction where support is insufficient. On an event-isolated PILD dataset of four public sources, 55 global landslide events, and 7,890 test samples, 70.3% of cross-domain false-positive mass lies in near-pure spurious bodies of median equivalent diameter 207m, matching coarse-prior support rather than the pixel. Pixel-level adaptation removes a net 507,817 erroneous pixels and reduces error by 7.76%, whereas raising the decision unit to the candidate body, under identical samples, anchor, and baseline, increases error reduction to 23.99%, approximately 3.1 times the pixel-level effect, improves IoU by 0.031 (14.2% relative), and corrects 9.92 pixels per pixel harmed. The data and code are publicly available at: https://github.com/Liu-Zhihang/geophysadapter.