Training-Free Metrics for Synthetic Object Detection Data: A Proxy for Detector Performance

We propose SADGE, a quantitative similarity metric that predicts the performance of synthetic image datasets for common computer vision tasks without downstream model training. Estimating whether a synthetic dataset will lead to a model that performs well on real-world data remains a bottleneck in model development. Existing evaluation metrics (e.g., PSNR, FID, CLIP) primarily measure semantic alignment between real and synthetic images (Appearance Similarity Score). Less commonly, structural similarity between images is considered to assess the domain gap (Geometric Similarity Score). However, to the best of our knowledge there exists no studies that evaluate which similarity metric is the best downstream predictor for a given synthetic dataset. In this paper, we show over a wide variety of different synthetic datasets and downstream tasks that neither appearance nor geometry alone can reliably predict downstream performance; rather, it is their non-linear interplay that dictates synthetic data utility. Specifically, we measure how commonly used Appearance and Geometric Similarity metrics computed between synthetic and real images correlate with downstream performance in object detection, semantic segmentation, and pose estimation. Across five public synthetic-to-real benchmark families and 15 dataset-level variants (79k image pairs), SADGE achieves the strongest association with downstream transfer performance under both linear and rank-based criteria, reaching Pearson r=0.88 and Spearman rho=0.77. We compute for each combination of geometry-based methods and appearance-based approaches SADGE scores across all benchmark families. The best configuration is obtained by fusing DINOv3 appearance similarity with MASt3R geometric consistency through a constrained bilinear interaction, outperforming both the strongest geometry-only baseline and the strongest appearance-only baseline .

Diffusion-based image synthesis has emerged as a promising source of synthetic training data for AI-based object detection and classification. In this work, we investigate whether images generated with diffusion can improve military vehicle detection under low-data conditions. We fine-tuned the text-to-image diffusion model FLUX.1 [dev] using LoRA with only 8 or 24 real images per class across 15 vehicle categories, resulting in class-specific diffusion models, which were used to generate new samples from automatically generated text prompts. The same real images were used to fine-tune the RF-DETR detector for a 15-class object detection task. Synthetic datasets generated by the diffusion models were then used to further improve detector performance. Importantly, no additional real data was required, as the generative models leveraged the same limited training samples. FLUX-generated images improved detection performance, particularly in the low-data regime (up to +8.0% mAP$_{50}$ with 8 real samples). To address the limited geometric control of text prompt-based diffusion, we additionally generated structurally guided synthetic data using ControlNet with Canny edge-map conditioning, yielding a FLUX-ControlNet (FLUX-CN) dataset with explicit control over viewpoint and pose. Structural guidance further enhanced performance when data is scarce (+4.1% mAP$_{50}$ with 8 real samples), but no additional benefit was observed when more real data is available. This study demonstrates that object-specific diffusion models are effective for improving military object detection in a low-data domain, and that structural guidance is most beneficial when real data is highly limited. These results highlight generative image data as an alternative to traditional simulation pipelines for the training of military AI systems.

In many real-world computer vision applications, including medical imaging and industrial inspection, binary classification tasks are characterized by a severe scarcity of positive samples. A widely adopted solution is to generate synthetic positive data using image-to-image transformations applied to negative samples. However, a fundamental challenge remains: how can we reliably assess whether such synthetic data will improve downstream model performance? In this work, we propose a geometry-driven metric that predicts the utility of synthetic data without requiring model training. Our approach operates in the embedding space of a pre-trained foundation model and represents the dataset through difference vectors between samples. We evaluate whether the weight vector of a linear classifier can be expressed within the subspace spanned by these variations by measuring the relative projection error. Intuitively, if the variations induced by synthetic data capture task-relevant directions, their span can approximate the classifier, resulting in low projection error. Conversely, poor synthetic data fails to span these directions, leading to higher error. Across multiple datasets and architectures, we show that this metric exhibits strong correlation with downstream classification performance of CNNs trained on mixtures of real negative and synthetic positive data. These findings suggest that the proposed metric serves as a practical and informative tool for evaluating synthetic data quality in data-scarce settings.