Statistical Properties of Training & Generalization

Neural scaling laws establish a predictable relationship between model performance and data or compute, offering crucial guidance for resource allocation in new domains and tasks. Yet such laws are most needed precisely where they are hardest to obtain: fitting one for a new model task pair demands expensive sweeps that typically exhaust the very compute budget the law is meant to economize. This paper poses the research question of how to develop generalizable scaling laws: laws fit once on a well-resourced source domain and reliably transported to new domains where running a full sweep is infeasible, which requires a fundamental understanding of when and why scaling properties change. We address this by identifying the right invariants: scaling laws are preserved under bijective (information-preserving) transformations of the data and modified in predictable, information-theoretically grounded ways under non-bijective transformations that lower its information resolution $ρ$: a single axis along which a law fit in one domain can be transported to another. We validate this across language, vision, and speech, and demonstrate two cross-domain applications: predicting scaling for language models trained on electronic health records from laws fit on general text, and predicting time-series classification scaling under varying levels of noise injection, recovering the data-scaling exponents to within $3\%$ error.

These lecture notes introduce some topics of classical statistical physics, particularly those that are relevant for neural networks and deep learning. Statistical physics is treated as a branch of probability theory or statistics, with the goal of making concepts such as phase transitions and the renormalization group accessible to readers without prior knowledge of physics. We introduce the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution and the thermodynamic potentials on a finite configuration space, notably for Ising spins and spin-glass models on a lattice, and then define phase transitions as discontinuities that arise in the limit that the number of lattice points goes to infinity. We further introduce Hopfield networks and Boltzmann machines, which are governed by the same energy function as spin-glass models, and discuss the learning algorithm for restricted Boltzmann machines. In this algorithm hidden neurons are integrated out as in the renormalization group. Finally, modern deep learning is introduced, whose early developments were in part motivated by restricted Boltzmann machines in that they carry many layers of hidden neurons. A description of large language models is given.

While there are many applications of ML to scientific problems that look promising, visuals can be deceiving. Using numerical analysis techniques, we rigorously quantify the accuracy, convergence rates, and generalization bounds of certain ML models applied to linear differential equations for parameter discovery or solution finding. Beyond the quantity and discretization of data, we identify that the function space of the data is critical to the generalization of the model. A similar lack of generalization is empirically demonstrated for commonly used models, including physics-specific techniques. Counterintuitively, we find that different classes of models can exhibit opposing generalization behaviors. Based on our theoretical analysis, we also introduce a new mechanistic interpretability lens on scientific models whereby Green's function representations can be extracted from the weights of black-box models. Our results inform a new cross-validation technique for measuring generalization in physical systems, which can serve as a benchmark.