Prediction of Solar Flares Using Photospheric Magnetic Field Parameters with Deep Learning

We present FlareEUV, a multimodal deep learning framework for predicting daily extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance at 6.5 nm over three consecutive days during significant solar flares, using multi-instrument observations from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We consider 33 significant flares in the period between 2011 and 2014 in Solar Cycle 24. The SDO observations include 13 co-aligned full-disk images, comprising eight AIA EUV/UV and five HMI magnetic/continuum products. FlareEUV learns the relationship between magnetic structure and coronal emission from the raw imaging data using a lightweight attention-based architecture. Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of FlareEUV in short-term EUV irradiance forecasting during the significant flares and its superiority over baseline methods.

Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the reliable integration of photovoltaic power into modern electricity grids. All-sky imagers (ASI) provide high-resolution observations of clouds, making them well suited for intra-hour forecasting. Recent deep learning approaches have substantially improved forecast accuracy but are often limited by deterministic predictions and a reduced capability to anticipate ramp events. This work proposes FarSky, a generative forecasting framework that leverages latent-space coupling to learn task-aware representations of sky images. A multi-task autoencoder first learns a shared latent representation for image reconstruction and irradiance estimation. A latent diffusion model then generates future latent states conditioned on recent observations, from which irradiance forecasts are directly decoded. Probabilistic forecasts are inherently obtained through stochastic sampling. The framework is developed using a multi-year ASI dataset acquired at the Plataforma Solar de Almería, Spain, and evaluated on two independent test datasets against persistence, state-of-the-art end-to-end, and generative forecasting approaches. FarSky achieves the best overall deterministic and probabilistic forecasting performance, improving forecast skill by up to 11 percentage points. Furthermore, it substantially improves ramp event detection over existing methods, achieving F1-scores above 60%. These results demonstrate the potential of combining generative models with task-aware latent-space coupling for solar forecasting.

As artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) models become integral to network operations, their lack of transparency poses a significant barrier to operator trust. Existing explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques often fail to bridge this gap for non-specialists, producing technical outputs that are difficult to translate into actionable insights. This paper presents a framework specifically designed to address this shortcoming. It leverages a moderately sized large language model (LLM) and extends beyond the standard use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature influence values. The framework employs a structured prompt enriched with mutual feature interaction data to generate human-understandable natural language explanations. To validate our framework, we performed an empirical evaluation on an optical quality of transmission (QoT) estimation use case with human evaluators. We collected independent performance evaluations from specialists, which showed a high inter-evaluator agreement. Compared to a state-of-the-art baseline that uses only SHAP feature influence values in a straightforward prompt, our approach improves the explanation usefulness and scope by 12.2% and 6.2%, while achieving 97.5% correctness.