Energy Forecasting

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9 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

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State Transport Routing for Short-horizon Adaptation in Multi-horizon Photovoltaic Forecasting
Sep 29, 2026Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze +2Energy Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting
Huaibei Normal University, China
CMDO: A Cognitive Memory-Driven Optimization Algorithm for Adaptive Population-Based Search
Sep 28, 2026Mohammed Yusuf Mujawar, Shahram Rahimi, Noorbakhsh Amiri GolilarzMetaheuristics Cognitive Science
Department of Computer Science The University of Alabama, AL, USA
Transfer Learning with Conformalized Quantile Regression for Solar PV Forecasting Under Load-Shedding-Driven Data Scarcity
Sep 22, 2026Rakib Abdullah, K. M. Tahlil Mahfuz FarukEnergy Forecasting Photovoltaic
Department of AI and Data Science Green University of Bangladesh
The Operational Value of Spatial Dependence in Renewable Forecast Scenarios for Single-Period Economic Dispatch: A Controlled Ablation Study
Sep 21, 2026Jayakumar ManoharanEnergy Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Charlotte, NC, USA
Multi-Appliance Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring via Label-Preserving Aggregate Recomposition and Prediction Consistency
Sep 16, 2026Jiangfeng Liu, Yanfang FanAccurate Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Optimal Power Shutoff
School of Electrical Engineering, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830047, China
Distributed JEPA: A Self-Supervised Framework for Energy Forecasting
Sep 15, 2026Liana Toderean, Tudor Cioara, Vasilis Michalakopoulos +3Energy Forecasting Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures
Distributed Systems Research Laboratory, Computer Science Department, Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, G. Barițiu 26-28, 400027 Cluj-Napoca, Romania · Decision Support Systems Laboratory, School of Electrical & Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Ir. Politechniou 9, 157 73 Athens, Greece
Ensemble Complexity in Photovoltaic Forecasting
Sep 14, 2026Sun Ze, Zhou Liguo, Xu Yuqing +2Energy Forecasting Ensemble
aSchool of Computer Science and Technology, Huaibei Normal University, China
Horizon-specific Expert Fusion for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting
Sep 14, 2026Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze +2Energy Forecasting Photovoltaic
School of Computer Science and Technology, Huaibei Normal University, China
Bidirectional Multimodal Fusion of Sky Images and Time-Series for Solar Forecasting with Large Language Models
Sep 11, 2026Ken Chen, Maneesha Perera, Wei Wang +3Energy Forecasting Solar Irradiance
Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia · Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, Sri Lanka
FarSky: Task-Aware Latent-Space Coupling for Generative Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting
Aug 6, 2026Yann Fabel, Bijan Nouri, Milon Miah +4Energy Forecasting Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting
1DLR, Institute of Solar Research · 2RWTH Aachen University · 3CIEMAT, Energy Department, Renewable Energy Division
Personalized Federated Sparse Adaptation of Time-Series Foundation Models
Aug 5, 2026Priyanka Nihalchandani, Naman Srivastava, Varun Ojha +1Time Series Foundation Models Parameter-Efficient Adaptation
Robert Bosch Centre for Cyber-Physical Systems, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, India · School of Computing, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
An AI-Based Decision-Support Pipeline for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Forecasting
Aug 3, 2026Fariba Dehghan, Sebastian Stein, Vahid Yazdanpanah +2Energy Forecasting Atmospheric Dynamics
University of Southampton
A Controlled Visual-Backbone Benchmark for Multimodal Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting
Jul 26, 2026Oshadha Samarakoon, Dushan Herath, Ishara Ranmandala +4Energy Forecasting Solar Irradiance
Dept. of EEE, University of Peradeniya · Peradeniya, Sri Lanka · MARC, University of Peradeniya
SPECTRA: State-Space Exogenous Context and Temporal-Frequency Resolution Architecture for Probabilistic Energy Forecasting
Jul 22, 2026Hang Ye, Xinyan Jiang, Yuedong Shi +5Probabilistic Forecasting Energy Forecasting
Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China · School of Physical Science and Technology, Shanghaitech University, Shanghai 201210, China +2
A Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Solar EUV Irradiance During Significant Flares
Jul 21, 2026Sathvik Soman, Jason T. L. Wang, Haimin Wang +1Geomagnetic Storms Solar Irradiance
New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, USA · Sam Houston State University, Huntsville, TX, USA
Probabilistic Physics-Aware Machine Learning Predictions of Electric Truck Energy Consumption with Field Data
Jul 21, 2026Hannes Nilsson, Rafael Basso, Balázs Kulcsár +1Electricity Price Forecasting Electric Vehicles
Volvo Technology AB Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Electric Engineering Chalmers University of Technology Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Computer Science and Engineering Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg Gothenburg, Sweden
Improving Wind and Solar Power Prediction with Efficient Wrapper-based Feature Selection: An Empirical Study
Jul 15, 2026Daniel Grillmeyer, Marius Hadry, Michael Stenger +3Offshore Wind Turbine Energy Forecasting
University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany · Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Mosbach, Mosbach, Germany
Robustness of Deep Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting under NWP Forecast Errors: A Spatiotemporal and Physically Interpretable Analysis
Jul 14, 2026Dandan Chen, Yan Zhao, Xuepeng ChenEnergy Forecasting Numerical Weather Prediction
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, No. 46 Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China · Key Laboratory of High Impact Weather (special), China Meteorological Administration, Changsha, 410073, China
Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting
Jul 13, 2026Shreedhar Gangwar, Abhinav Bains, Banalaxmi BrahmaEnergy Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology Jalandhar, India
PARA-PV: Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented PV Prediction Based on Frozen Foundation Model and Distribution Shift Correction
Jul 9, 2026Hang Fan, Weican Liu, Ying Lu +3Energy Forecasting Distribution Shifts
School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 102206, Beijing, China · School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore · Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China
Towards Continuous Power Forecasting: Practical Continual Learning for Real-World Energy Systems in Nonstationary Time Series
Jun 23, 2026Yujiang He, Frederic Uhrweiller, Bernhard SickElectricity Price Forecasting Replay-Based Continual Learning
Intelligent Embedded Systems, University of Kassel, 34121 Kassel, Germany
QueryMarket: Cost-Aware Online Active Learning in Data Markets
Jun 16, 2026Xiwen Huang, Pierre PinsonPool-Based Active Learning Active Learning
Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2DB, U.K. · Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, London, U.K. · Halfspace (part of Accenture) +2
Time series Foundation Models based on Physics-Informed Synthetic Histories for Cold-Start Photovoltaic Forecasting
Jun 5, 2026Lorenzo Longarini, Alessandro Rongoni, Simone Silenzi +2Energy Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models
Sistemi 2000 srl, Civitanova Marche, Italy · Department of Engineering ”Enzo Ferrari”, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy · Department of Political Sciences, Communication and International Relations, University of Macerata, Macerata, Italy
CF-JEPA: Mask-free forward prediction with asymmetric encoder utilization for time-series representation learning
Jun 5, 2026Jaehoon Lee, Sunghyun SimJoint-Embedding Predictive Architectures Time Series
aGraduate School of Artificial Intelligence Convergence Engineering, Changwon National University, Changwon, South Korea · bDepartment of Artificial Intelligence Engineering, Changwon National University, Changwon, South Korea
Step-adaptive multimodal fusion network with multi-scale cloud feature learning for ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting
Jun 4, 2026Jingxin Zhang Xiaoqin WangEnergy Forecasting Multiscale
School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China
Uncertainty-Aware Transfer Learning for Cross-Building Energy Forecasting: Toward Robust and Scalable District-Level Energy Management
May 28, 2026Shadmehr Zaregarizi, Khashayar YavariElectricity Price Forecasting Energy Forecasting
Politecnico di Torino · Turin, Italy
Decision-focused learning for optimal PV-Battery scheduling
May 27, 2026Joris Depoortere, Hussain Kazmi, Johan DriesenEnergy Forecasting Photovoltaic
ESAT-Electa KU Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 10, Leuven, 3001, Belgium
Inpainting-Style Conditional Diffusion for Multivariable Time Series Forecasting
May 27, 2026Kourosh Kiani, S. M. MuyeenEnergy Forecasting Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
1Electrical and Computer Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran · Electrical Engineering Department, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
LLM Agent Based Renewable Energy Forecasting Using Edge and IoT Data A Review of Solar Wind Weather and Grid Aware Decision Support
May 24, 2026Pavan Manjunath, Thomas PrueferEnergy Forecasting Weather Prediction
Independent Researcher
Learning Long-Term Temporal Dependencies in Photovoltaic Power Output Prediction Through Multi-Horizon Forecasting
May 18, 2026Sumit Laha, Ankit Sharma, Hassan ForooshEnergy Forecasting Photovoltaic
Department of Computer Science University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida, United States.
AI and Open-data Driven Scalable Solar Power Profiling
May 4, 2026Shiliang Zhang, Sabita Maharjan, Damla TurgutPhotovoltaic Energy Forecasting
Department of Informatics, University of Oslo, Norway · Department of Computer Science, University of Central Florida, USA
SolarTformer: A Transformer Based Deep Learning Approach for Short Term Solar Power Forecasting
Apr 27, 2026Ankan Basu, Jyotiraditya Roy, Aditya Datta +2Energy Forecasting Photovoltaic
Positional Astronomy Centre, India Meteorological Department, Kolkata, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering (Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning), Heritage Institute of Technology, Kolkata, India +2
FETS Benchmark: Foundation Models Outperform Dataset-specific Machine Learning in Energy Time Series Forecasting
Apr 24, 2026Marco Obermeier, Marco Pruckner, Florian Haselbeck +1Electricity Price Forecasting Time Series Foundation Models
Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, Modeling and Simulation Lab, Am Hubland, Würzburg, 97074, Germany · Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences, Smart Farming, Am Staudengarten 1, Freising, 85354, Germany · Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences, Digital Energy Transition, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 3, Freising, 85354, Germany
Forecasting Solar Energy Using a Single Image
Apr 23, 2026Jeremy Klotz, Shree K. NayarEnergy Forecasting Solar Irradiance
Computer Science Department, Columbia University, 500 West 120th St., New York, 10027, NY, USA
Barrier-enforced multi-objective optimization for direct point and sharp interval forecasting
Apr 20, 2026Worachit Amnuaypongsa, Yotsapat Suparanonrat, Pana Wanitchollakit +1Probabilistic Forecasting Energy Forecasting
Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand · Department of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand

Sep 29, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

State Transport Routing for Short-horizon Adaptation in Multi-horizon Photovoltaic Forecasting

Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze, Yu Lei+1

Huaibei Normal University, China

Energy Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting Photovoltaic

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Recent power measurements provide valuable information for photovoltaic(PV) power forecasting, but directly extrapolating short-term trends can introduce substantial errors over longer forecast horizons. To address this challenge, we propose state transport routing (STR), a lightweight adapter that refines the predictions of a frozen forecasting model. STR combines the original forecast with two complementary trajectories derived from the latest measured power level and its recent trend. A horizon-conditioned router adjusts their contributions over the first 120 min, while leaving subsequent predictions unchanged. Experiments on four public PV datasets show that STR consistently outperforms a parameter-matched residual adapter. On PVDAQ, the same approach improves five neural forecasting backbones, reducing all-horizon normalized mean absolute error by 0.0201-0.2364 percentage points, with paired 95% confidence intervals excluding zero. No reliable improvement is observed for LightGBM. These findings demonstrate the potential of structured state adaptation to improve short-term forecasting across different neural architectures without retraining the underlying models or altering their longer-horizon predictions.

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