eess.SPJun 20, 2026

Anticipating the Optimism Gap: Predicting Distribution-Shift Degradation of RF-Impairment Detectors from In-Distribution Statistics

Authors: Chakshu Baweja

Organizations: Ashforde OÜ

Abstract

Detectors for GNSS radio-frequency impairments (jamming, spoofing, multipath) are usually reported with a single AUC measured on the distribution they were tuned on. That number falls once conditions move, and the size of the drop is rarely known in advance because labelled field data is scarce. We ask whether this optimism can be predicted before any out-of-distribution data is seen. On an open, parameter-grounded synthetic testbed with a tunable severity shift, we evaluate thirteen detectors (five physics baselines, full-feature logistic regression and multilayer perceptrons, and single-feature learned controls) across four impairment classes. The optimism gap, the difference between in-distribution and shifted AUC, grows monotonically as the shift deepens (mean Spearman correlation 0.50). It is driven by how many observables a detector uses rather than by whether it is learned, and it varies systematically by class. Centrally, a ridge model built only from in-distribution score statistics predicts the gap for a detector it has never seen (R^2 = 0.47) and for an impairment class it has never seen (R^2 = 0.46); both are significant against a 2000-fold permutation null (p < 0.001) and survive removing the feature that is, by construction, part of the target. The headline findings are synthetic. We then run the pre-registered protocol on three open field corpora: on Jammertest 2024 the cross-detector prediction holds (R^2 = 0.11, p = 0.009), and on SatGrid, whose spoofer power sweep gives a calibrated severity axis, in-distribution AUC overstates higher-severity AUC by up to 0.22 and to the point of sign inversion, with in-distribution AUC and realised gap perfectly rank-correlated (Spearman rho = 1.0). The mechanism survives contact with real data, at smaller magnitude than in simulation. We release the testbed, a software-receiver front end, the ingest adapters and the protocol.

Explore similar work

CardsList
Jun 10, 2026cs.LG

Out-of-Distribution (OOD) Detectors for Open-Set RF Fingerprinting

Radio-frequency (RF) fingerprinting systems must operate in open-world environments where signals from unknown transmitters and temporal drift introduce distribution shift at test time. Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection provides a natural framework for this problem, yet its application to RF fingerprinting (RFF) remains limited. A key barrier to their adoption is that most OOD detectors require auxiliary OOD data for parameter tuning, an assumption that is difficult to satisfy in RF environments where representative OOD data is impractical to collect. In this work, we introduce a promising set of OOD detection methods from the machine learning literature to open-set RFF domain. We present these methods within a unified mathematical framework based on information theory, which is a natural framework for communication systems. Our framework allows for the systematic analysis of methods and development of new methods. We further demonstrate the applicability of recent work on tuning OOD detectors without given OOD tuning data for open-set RFF. We evaluate on the POWDER RF fingerprinting dataset, showing that detectors tuned without any given OOD data achieve performance comparable to baselines with access to true OOD tuning data and greatly out-perform baseline approaches without access to true OOD tuning data, showcasing the practical viability for the RFF problem.
Sudeepta Mondal, Ganesh Sundaramoorthi
Out-Of-Distribution DetectionRadio FrequencyFingerprintOut-Of-DistributionOpen-Set Recognition
AskPDF
Jul 29, 2026cs.CV

Level, Sharpness, and Corpus: Why Zero-Shot OOD Detector Rankings Do Not Transfer

Selecting a zero-shot out-of-distribution (OOD) detector for a new deployment is typically based on benchmark rankings, implicitly assuming that the highest-ranked detector will transfer across domains. We show that this assumption does not hold. Through a controlled portability audit across seventeen in-distribution datasets, three vision-language models, and seven representative zero-shot OOD detectors, we find that detector rankings reverse across deployments, every detector exceeds 80%80\% FPR95 on at least one domain, and the preferred detector depends on both the in-distribution data and the underlying VLM. We trace these reversals to complementary evidence channels in vision-language logits. Corpus-free detectors rely on different combinations of absolute match level and relative or spatial sharpness, while WordNet-based methods additionally depend on external semantic coverage. A simple proposition shows that level and sharpness cannot generally be recovered from one another, explaining why no single detector transfers reliably across deployments. Motivated by this diagnosis, we introduce the Complementary Evidence Guard (CEG), a detector-agnostic wrapper that preserves complementary evidence through a non-compensatory fusion of the base detector, level, and sharpness using only empirical in-distribution percentiles. Controls replacing these channels with entropy, logit variance, or random noise do not reproduce the gains. Without OOD samples, auxiliary corpora, or learned fusion, CEG reduces detector sensitivity and improves GL-MCM from 38.138.1 to 28.828.8 and MCM from 42.642.6 to 30.530.5 family-balanced FPR95.
Ignacio M. De la Jara, Cristian Rodriguez-Opazo, Stephen Gould +1
Out-Of-Distribution DetectionIn-DistributionVision-LanguageSharpness-Aware MinimizationText Corpora
AskPDF
May 28, 2026cs.CV

EarthShift: a benchmark for measuring robustness to real-world distribution shifts in Earth observation

Current Earth observation benchmarks focus on measuring performance on diverse tasks and applications, typically measuring generalization in-distribution. But when models are deployed, they must generalize to myriad out-of-distribution scenarios, such as new time periods, geographies, scales, and sensors. We introduce EarthShift: the first public testbed for benchmarking robustness across multiple realistic distribution shifts encountered in remote sensing. EarthShift enables users to measure distributional robustness by comparing performance in- and out-of-distribution using datasets from paired datasets from different sources, temporal windows, geographic locations, and sensors. Our experiments on 8 geospatial foundation models (GFMs) and 11 tasks covering 5 shift types show that GFMs consistently perform 15-20% worse out-of-distribution on average regardless of model architecture, size, pre-training or fine-tuning strategy. We show that GFM robustness is similar to that of generic vision foundation models, and even fully-supervised models. This highlights a need for future research to strive for improvements in distributional robustness, not just performance, which can be benchmarked using EarthShift. We release our code and datasets to provide a testbed to guide future work to create foundation models that are robust and reliable in real-world applications. Code and data for EarthShift are available at: https://earthshift.github.io
Kelsey Doerksen, Hannah Kerner
Geospatial Foundation ModelsDistribution ShiftsEarth ObservationDomain Shift
AskPDF