How Should a Simulation-to-Reality Transfer Budget Be Spent?

While sim2real efforts are necessary for effective policy transfer to hardware, there is such a thing as too much of a good thing. We argue that sim2real efforts have led to misaligned incentives with policy learning, resulting in simulator lock in and poor policy exploration due to the unreasonable constraints imposed by the real world. We offer a diagnosis and explanation of the current status of the problem, and propose a potential solution via a sim2sim2real paradigm that leverages the robot's kinematics as the sole design constraint.

This paper studies the problem of robot performance evaluation, focusing on how to obtain accurate and efficient estimates of real-world behavior under severe constraints on physical experimentation. Such estimates are essential for benchmarking algorithms, comparing design alternatives, validating controllers, and supporting certification or regulatory decision-making, yet real-world testing with physical robots is often expensive, time-consuming, and safety-limited. To mitigate the scarcity of real-world trials, sim-to-real methodologies are commonly employed, using low-cost simulators to inform, supplement, or prioritize physical experiments. Departing from (and complementary to) existing approaches in variance reduction (e.g., importance-sampling variants) or bias-correction (e.g., through prediction-powered inference or learned control variates), we examine this performance-evaluation problem through the lens of betting. We establish theoretical conditions under which a betting mechanism can yield accurate and efficient estimates (provably outperforming the Monte Carlo estimator) and we characterize how such bets should be constructed. We further develop theoretically grounded yet practically implementable approximations of the ideal bet, and we provide concrete decision rules that diagnose when these approximate betting strategies are working as intended. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods using both synthetic examples and cross-fidelity computational simulators. Notably, we also showcase an illustrative case in which a group of synthetic distributions are used to infer the real-world pick-and-place accuracy of a robotic manipulator, a seemingly unconventional sim-to-real transfer that becomes natural and feasible under the proposed betting perspective. Programs for reproducing empirical results are available at https://github.com/ISUSAIL/Bet4Sim2Real.

In recent years, reinforcement learning (RL) has shown remarkable success in robotics when a fast and accurate simulator is available for a given task. When using RL and simulation, more simulator realism is generally beneficial but becomes harder to obtain as robots are deployed in increasingly complex and widescale domains. In such settings, simulators will likely fail to model all relevant details of a given target task and this observation motivates the study of sim2real with simulators that leave out key task details. In this paper, we formalize and study the abstract sim2real problem: given an abstract simulator that models a target task at a coarse level of abstraction, how can we train a policy with RL in the abstract simulator and successfully transfer it to the real-world? Our first contribution is to formalize this problem using the language of state abstraction from the RL literature. This framing shows that an abstract simulator can be grounded to match the target task if the grounded abstract dynamics take the history of states into account. Based on the formalism, we then introduce a method that uses real-world task data to correct the dynamics of the abstract simulator. We then show that this method enables successful policy transfer both in sim2sim and sim2real evaluation.