Neural Networks as Linear Regression: An Introduction for Statisticians

Classical deep learning typically operates on individual cases. Despite its success, real-world usage often requires repeated inference to estimate statistical quantities for complex decision-making tasks involving uncertainty or extreme-value analysis, resulting in substantial latency. We introduce neural statistical functions, a new family of models learned from pre-trained single-sample predictors and scattered data samples, which can directly infer statistics over continuous operating condition ranges without explicit sampling. By introducing the notion of prefix statistics, we transform and unify diverse statistical functions (e.g., integrals, quantiles, and maxima) into an interval-conditional framework, in which a principled identity between the prefix statistics and the individual-case regression serves as the learning objective. Neural statistical functions achieve strong performance in estimating essential statistics of complex physical processes, including accumulated energy in dynamical systems, quantiles of aerodynamic responses, and maximum stress in crash processes, while achieving up to a 100$\times$ reduction in model evaluations.

Over the last few years, there has been an increased interest in making machine learning models more interpretable. Although a great deal of effort goes into developing techniques for interpreting the interactions learned by a given model, fewer studies focus on assessing the quality of such explanations. Even fewer focus on how to adjust the model to produce explanations faithful to prior knowledge, a process known as explanation-guided learning. Furthermore, most approaches in this area focus on classification problems and usually assume prior knowledge about which input features or regions are most important. In this work, we introduce a new approach to steering neural networks based on partial dependence, such that their average response to certain features aligns with specific functional domain knowledge about the problem. We empirically demonstrate on a range of regression problems, including dynamical systems forecasting, that models whose training has been controlled using our method perform better than unconstrained models and are more data-efficient. Moreover, we highlight that interpretations obtained from the former actually align with the user-provided knowledge, whereas those obtained from the latter do not.

These lecture notes introduce some topics of classical statistical physics, particularly those that are relevant for neural networks and deep learning. Statistical physics is treated as a branch of probability theory or statistics, with the goal of making concepts such as phase transitions and the renormalization group accessible to readers without prior knowledge of physics. We introduce the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution and the thermodynamic potentials on a finite configuration space, notably for Ising spins and spin-glass models on a lattice, and then define phase transitions as discontinuities that arise in the limit that the number of lattice points goes to infinity. We further introduce Hopfield networks and Boltzmann machines, which are governed by the same energy function as spin-glass models, and discuss the learning algorithm for restricted Boltzmann machines. In this algorithm hidden neurons are integrated out as in the renormalization group. Finally, modern deep learning is introduced, whose early developments were in part motivated by restricted Boltzmann machines in that they carry many layers of hidden neurons. A description of large language models is given.