UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control

Deep search requires agents to answer complex questions through multi-step web search, browsing, evidence comparison, and synthesis. A central challenge is deciding how to search when several directions look plausible but only some will later lead to reliable evidence. If an agent greedily follows the current best-looking direction, it may keep extending a weak continuation. If it explores without discipline, it may waste budget on disconnected trials. We propose TreeSeeker, an inference-time framework for controlled trial-and-error in deep search. TreeSeeker organizes search as branch-and-return search over tree-structured states, where each branch is a tentative direction for a sub-goal. At each round, TreeSearch reads all sub-goal trees, identifies active goals, and uses textual UCB signals of value, uncertainty, and risk to select among exploiting a promising branch, exploring an uncertain alternative, or pruning an unproductive continuation and returning to an earlier branch point. TreeMem supports this control loop by keeping evidence, uncertainty, conflicts, progress, and failure cues attached to the branches that produced them, so trial outcomes can guide later decisions. Experiments on XBench-DeepSearch, BrowseComp, and BrowseComp-ZH show that TreeSeeker consistently outperforms strong open-source baselines, suggesting that explicit branch-and-return control complements stronger reasoning and tool execution.

Bounded-suboptimal search seeks a solution within a factor $w$ of optimal while reducing search effort. Focal Search (FS) uses heuristic guidance within FOCAL, the frontier nodes eligible under the threshold $w f_{\min}$, but its deterministic policy may leave $f_{\min}$ unchanged for many expansions. We introduce Probabilistic Focal Search (PFS), which follows the FS guided choice with probability $p$ and expands a minimum-$f$ OPEN node with probability $1-p$. The latter branch encourages the lower bound to advance, enlarging FOCAL and admitting nodes that may lead to feasible solutions. By balancing guidance and lower-bound advancement, this mechanism can reduce time to a bounded solution when progress is limited by delayed FOCAL admission. As a secondary transfer experiment, we apply the same scheduler to Dynamic Potential Search, yielding Probabilistic Dynamic Potential Search (PDPS). We benchmark PFS against FS on N-Puzzle, Pancake Sorting, and the Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP), and evaluate its anytime extension on the Generalized Covering TSP (GCTSP), using multiple $w$ and $p$ values. Across these benchmarks, the largest gains occur when long $f_{\min}$ plateaus delay useful FOCAL admissions; in such settings, the probabilistic factor may reduce node expansions by about 90% or more (e.g., on N-Puzzle and TSP). For the anytime algorithm family, Anytime Probabilistic Focal Search (APFS) outperforms all tested algorithms in evaluating anytime methods on GCTSP. We also observe that the benefit is smaller when the deterministic search already advances efficiently (e.g., Pancake Sorting), indicating that the probabilistic factor is most useful when FOCAL admission is a search bottleneck. The PDPS transfer shows that the mechanism also transfers to potential guidance, although its common-success effects remain domain- and bound-dependent.

Scaling test-time compute has proven highly effective for language models, yet this opportunity remains largely unexplored for industrial Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction. CTR models suffer from a fundamental asymmetry: feature combinations well-represented in training yield confident predictions, while sparsely observed ones produce unreliable outputs. Existing training-phase solutions such as adaptive gating learn a fixed selection function subject to the same sparsity, offering no per-instance recourse at deployment.We propose UTTSI (Uncertainty-Triggered Test-Time Selective Inference), a training-free model-agnostic framework that scales inference depth proportionally to per-instance uncertainty. A dual-signal estimator combining model logit confidence with a data-level frequency prior distinguishes epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric ambiguity. Every instance undergoes adaptive feature filtering to remove unreliable embeddings; uncertain instances additionally receive stochastic feature-path explorations whose predictions are aggregated via consistency-weighted ensembling. Confident instances bypass exploration entirely, keeping average overhead at approximately $2.8\times$ base model cost with worst-case latency unchanged.Experiments on four datasets with three backbone architectures demonstrate consistent, statistically significant gains over all training-phase baselines. A seven-day online A/B test further confirms a 5.3% relative CTR gain ($p < 0.01$), establishing selective test-time compute allocation as a practical complement to training-phase advances for CTR prediction.