A Bayesian latent Gaussian process framework for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification
Authors: Geoffrey Davis, Ashwin Renganathan
Organizations: Undergraduate research assistant, Aerospace Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 · Assistant professor, Aerospace Engineering and the Institute of Computational and Data Science (ICDS), The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802
Abstract
Predicting the aerodynamic performance (e.g. lift, drag, and moment coefficients) of an aircraft is challenging -- computational models are biased and direct simulations are prohibitive. A pragmatic way to overcome this limitation is by calibrating low-fidelity computational predictions with experimental measurements. This, however, requires calibrating against \emph{sparse} measurements contaminated with \emph{uncertainty} in both the control inputs and the measured aerodynamic response. We develop a methodology to address this problem based on Gaussian process surrogates and the classical Kennedy-O'Hagan calibration. A surrogate model learned on abundant-but-cheap low-fidelity data is calibrated with a sparse set of measurement data. Crucialy, we develop a Bayesian latent Gaussian process based approach that marginalizes the calibrated surrogate model over the input uncertainty, while also matching the marginal mean and variance of the measured output uncertainty. Once calibrated, our surrogate model predicts the uncertainty in aerodynamic coefficients with very high accuracy, including at extrapolative input settings. We validate our calibrated surrogate model predictions against measurement data with \emph{true} uncertainty intervals to demonstrate that the model places 94.2−95.8% of its predictive samples inside the released 95% truth intervals, with endpoint cumulative probabilities very close to the nominal 0.025 and 0.975 levels.
Aerodynamic surrogate models are increasingly used to replace repeated high-fidelity CFD evaluations in many-query design settings, but current approaches still face two important limitations: they often scale poorly to the very large fields arising in realistic 3D aerodynamics, and they rarely produce latent representations that are directly useful for analysis and design. We introduce AeroJEPA, a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for aerodynamic field modeling that addresses both issues. Rather than predicting the full flow field directly from geometry, AeroJEPA predicts a target latent representation of the flow from a context latent representation of the geometry and operating conditions, and optionally reconstructs the field through a continuous implicit decoder. This formulation decouples latent prediction from field resolution while encouraging the latent space to organize semantically. We evaluate AeroJEPA on two complementary datasets: HiLiftAeroML, which stresses the method in a high-fidelity regime with extremely large boundary-layer fields, and SuperWing, which tests large-scale generalization and latent-space optimization over a broad family of transonic wings. Across these benchmarks, AeroJEPA is competitive as a continuous surrogate for aerodynamic fields, scales naturally to high-resolution outputs, and learns context and predicted latents that encode geometry and aerodynamic quantities not used directly as supervision. We further show that the resulting latent space supports controlled interpolation, linear probing, concept-vector arithmetic, and a constrained design latent-optimization experiment. These results suggest that predictive latent learning is a promising direction for scalable and design-meaningful aerodynamic surrogate modeling.
Francisco Giral, Abhijeet Vishwasrao, Andrea Arroyo Ramo +8
Accurate modeling of aerodynamic loads is essential for understanding and predicting the responses of complex structural systems. However, these models often rely on simplifications of the true physical forces, introducing assumptions that can limit their accuracy. Validating such models becomes particularly challenging in the presence of noisy or incomplete data. To address this, we introduce a probabilistic physics-informed machine learning approach designed to reconstruct the underlying aerodynamic loads from noisy measurements of structural dynamic responses. The model avoids overfitting, eliminates the need for regularization schemes, and allows for the use of heterogeneous and multi-fidelity data during the training process. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through the reconstruction of aerodynamic loads on the Great Belt East Bridge, simulated under a linear unsteady assumption. Results show a strong agreement between true and predicted loads, particularly related to root mean squared errors, magnitude, phase angle and peak values of the signals. The method for load reconstructing holds broad applicability, such as modeling validation, future load estimation, and structural damage prognosis.
Gledson Rodrigo Tondo, Igor Kavrakov, Guido Morgenthal
Active multi-fidelity surrogate modeling is developed for multi-condition airfoil shape optimization to reduce high-fidelity CFD cost while retaining RANS-consistent aerodynamic metrics. The framework couples a low-fidelity-informed Gaussian process regression transfer model with uncertainty-triggered sampling and a synchronized elitism rule embedded in a hybrid genetic algorithm. Low-fidelity XFOIL evaluations provide inexpensive features, while sparse RANS simulations are adaptively allocated when predictive uncertainty exceeds a threshold; elite candidates are mandatorily validated at high fidelity, and the population is re-evaluated to prevent evolutionary selection based on outdated fitness values produced by earlier surrogate states. The method is demonstrated for a two-point problem at Re=6×106 with cruise at α=2∘ (maximize E=L/D) and take-off at α=10∘ (maximize CL) using a 12-parameter CST representation. Independent multi-fidelity surrogates per flight condition enable decoupled refinement. The optimized design improves cruise efficiency by 41.05% and take-off lift by 20.75% relative to the best first-generation individual. Over the full campaign, RANS evaluations were required for only 14.78% and 9.5% of the condition-specific candidate evaluations at cruise and take-off, respectively. These percentages quantify the reduction in high-fidelity usage relative to the fixed automated RANS workflow adopted as the high-fidelity reference in this study.