A Bayesian latent Gaussian process framework for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification

Neural surrogates can substantially accelerate computer-aided engineering (CAE) workflows, but their use in design requires uncertainty estimates that remain meaningful across varying geometries, spatial prediction fields, and engineering quantities of interest. We investigate how established uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches behave when adapted to geometry-conditioned neural surrogates. We compare one closed-form and two sampling-based approaches-a Gaussian process (GP)-based method, concrete Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, and deep ensembles-and evaluate them on three large, industry-relevant CAE datasets for external aerodynamics and crash dynamics. We examine whether predicted uncertainties have credible magnitudes, identify locations with larger prediction errors, respond to unfamiliar inputs, and remain informative for derived engineering quantities. On the DrivAerStar dataset, where all three methods are compared, each generally assigns higher uncertainty to locations with larger prediction errors, and validation-based rescaling brings interval coverage close to nominal on a disjoint in-distribution test set. Results on AirFRANS and automotive crash also show useful error ranking and interval estimates, but the relative performance of the methods changes with the dataset and evaluation criterion. UQ methods and evaluation metrics should therefore be selected based on the intended downstream CAE decision.

Aerodynamic surrogate models are increasingly used to replace repeated high-fidelity CFD evaluations in many-query design settings, but current approaches still face two important limitations: they often scale poorly to the very large fields arising in realistic 3D aerodynamics, and they rarely produce latent representations that are directly useful for analysis and design. We introduce AeroJEPA, a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for aerodynamic field modeling that addresses both issues. Rather than predicting the full flow field directly from geometry, AeroJEPA predicts a target latent representation of the flow from a context latent representation of the geometry and operating conditions, and optionally reconstructs the field through a continuous implicit decoder. This formulation decouples latent prediction from field resolution while encouraging the latent space to organize semantically. We evaluate AeroJEPA on two complementary datasets: HiLiftAeroML, which stresses the method in a high-fidelity regime with extremely large boundary-layer fields, and SuperWing, which tests large-scale generalization and latent-space optimization over a broad family of transonic wings. Across these benchmarks, AeroJEPA is competitive as a continuous surrogate for aerodynamic fields, scales naturally to high-resolution outputs, and learns context and predicted latents that encode geometry and aerodynamic quantities not used directly as supervision. We further show that the resulting latent space supports controlled interpolation, linear probing, concept-vector arithmetic, and a constrained design latent-optimization experiment. These results suggest that predictive latent learning is a promising direction for scalable and design-meaningful aerodynamic surrogate modeling.

Accurate modeling of aerodynamic loads is essential for understanding and predicting the responses of complex structural systems. However, these models often rely on simplifications of the true physical forces, introducing assumptions that can limit their accuracy. Validating such models becomes particularly challenging in the presence of noisy or incomplete data. To address this, we introduce a probabilistic physics-informed machine learning approach designed to reconstruct the underlying aerodynamic loads from noisy measurements of structural dynamic responses. The model avoids overfitting, eliminates the need for regularization schemes, and allows for the use of heterogeneous and multi-fidelity data during the training process. The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated through the reconstruction of aerodynamic loads on the Great Belt East Bridge, simulated under a linear unsteady assumption. Results show a strong agreement between true and predicted loads, particularly related to root mean squared errors, magnitude, phase angle and peak values of the signals. The method for load reconstructing holds broad applicability, such as modeling validation, future load estimation, and structural damage prognosis.