Organizations: Biocomplexity Institute, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
Abstract
Characterizing the scenario underlying an epidemic from its disease cascade is an important task in simulation analytics. We propose boundary degree, the count of an infected node's contacts in the underlying contact network that were not infected, as a per-node cascade feature for this task. Through systematic ablation on realistic social contact networks of Tennessee and Virginia, we show that boundary degree alone improves scenario identification accuracy by 19%. Edge features, whose importance was observed empirically by prior work, consistently improve accuracy across all settings; we provide theoretical grounding for this observation. These effects are complementary. We prove that certain epidemic scenarios are indistinguishable without boundary or edge information. Prior feature engineering approaches included aggregate boundary statistics, but these were not among the top-ranked feature groups; the per-node representation we propose reveals their importance clearly. Our results suggest that contact tracing applications should track contacts with non-infected individuals, not only transmissions.
Many important outcomes unfold as dynamic cascades, including product adoption, disease spread, financial distress, and information diffusion. A central challenge is to recover the hidden influence network behind these cascades. Existing methods typically assume a specific diffusion model, and their performance degrades substantially when that assumption is misspecified. We propose CascadeNet, a Jacobian-based machine learning framework for network recovery that does not require specifying a diffusion mechanism. The key idea is that the underlying influence structure can be characterized by the Jacobian of the one-step transition function. CascadeNet first constructs a flexible estimator of the transition function, and further applies Neyman-orthogonal debiasing via the Riesz representer, so that the debiased Jacobian is n-consistent and asymptotically normal, enabling formal inference on the network structure. We validate CascadeNet in both a simulation exercise and a real-world empirical application. In simulations, where the data-generating process is known, CascadeNet achieves the highest network recovery accuracy across nine common data-generating processes. In an empirical application to COVID-19 transmission across Spain's 52 provinces, CascadeNet recovers transmission networks that are significantly correlated with the true inter-province mobility network, whereas networks recovered by baseline methods show no significant alignment with the ground truth.
The pandemic in 2020 and 2021 had enormous economic and societal consequences, and studies show that contact tracing algorithms can be key in the early containment of the virus. While large strides have been made towards more effective contact tracing algorithms, we argue that privacy concerns currently hold deployment back. The essence of a contact tracing algorithm constitutes the communication of a risk score. Yet, it is precisely the communication and release of this score to a user that an adversary can leverage to gauge the private health status of an individual. We pinpoint a realistic attack scenario and propose a contact tracing algorithm with differential privacy guarantees against this attack. The algorithm is tested on the two most widely used agent-based COVID19 simulators and demonstrates superior performance in a wide range of settings. Especially for realistic test scenarios and while releasing each risk score with epsilon=1 differential privacy, we achieve a two to ten-fold reduction in the infection rate of the virus. To the best of our knowledge, this presents the first contact tracing algorithm with differential privacy guarantees when revealing risk scores for COVID19.
Rob Romijnders, Christos Louizos, Yuki M. Asano +1
This paper presents a Koopman-based framework for early outbreak detection and intervention selection in a multi-agent epidemic simulation. Agents exhibit mobility patterns, heterogeneous susceptibility, immunity-dependent viral load progression, and local transmission through co-location. The goal of the simulation is to study near-critical epidemic regimes in which small changes in exposure or timing can alter the final outcome. Aggregate daily observables from early trajectory windows are encoded into a low-dimensional Koopman latent space whose approximately linear evolution supports short-horizon forecasting and outbreak risk estimation. These representations are combined with a random forest classifier trained to predict whether the final attack rate exceeds a major outbreak threshold. Experiments near the system tipping points show strong early warning performance, with Koopman-derived features contributing to class separation. Counterfactual analysis further shows that minimal interventions, such as keeping a single selected agent at home for one day, can reduce attack rates and, often, shift the trajectory below the outbreak threshold.