Timesteps of Mamba Align with Human Reading Times

Probing has shown that language model representations encode rich linguistic information, but it remains unclear whether they also capture cognitive signals about human processing. In this work, we probe language model representations for human reading times. Using regularized linear regression on two eye-tracking corpora spanning five languages (English, Greek, Hebrew, Russian, and Turkish), we compare the representations from every model layer against scalar predictors -- surprisal, information value, and logit-lens surprisal. We find that the representations from early layers outperform surprisal in predicting early-pass measures such as first fixation and gaze duration. The concentration of predictive power in the early layers suggests that human-like processing signatures are captured by low-level structural or lexical representations, pointing to a functional alignment between model depth and the temporal stages of human reading. In contrast, for late-pass measures such as total reading time, scalar surprisal remains superior, despite its being a much more compressed representation. We also observe performance gains when using both surprisal and early-layer representations. Overall, we find that the best-performing predictor varies strongly depending on the language and eye-tracking measure.

Human language comprehension unfolds sequentially: each word is processed in the context of those that came before, and the interpretation builds incrementally over time. Surprisal, the negative log probability of a word given its context, has been the dominant predictor of incremental processing cost. But surprisal reduces rich sequential representations to a single scalar at each word, discarding information about the direction in which the interpretation has been evolving. Dynamical-systems approaches suggest that the trajectory of the evolving interpretive state, not just its position at each moment,should shape processing, and language itself may have local momentum, since speakers plan utterances a few words at a time. We introduce trajectory extrapolation error: at each word, we fit a linear trajectory to the preceding hidden states of a transformer language model and measure deviation from the extrapolated path. On the Natural Stories corpus, this measure is nearly orthogonal to surprisal (r = .044) and independently predicts self-paced reading times. The effect is especially pronounced in garden-path sentences, strengthens with model scale (GPT-2 Small to Large), and replicates across architectures with different positional encoding schemes (GPT-2 vs. Pythia/RoPE). A displacement control shows the effect is not reducible to representational change magnitude: displacement and extrapolation error predict in opposite directions. These findings reveal two dissociable components of processing cost: word-level prediction error (surprisal) and sensitivity to the local momentum of the unfolding interpretation (trajectory extrapolation error).

A recent study (Kuribayashi et al., 2025) has shown that human sentence processing behavior, typically measured on syntactically unchallenging constructions, can be effectively modeled using surprisal from early layers of large language models (LLMs). This raises the question of whether such advantages of internal layers extend to more syntactically challenging constructions, where surprisal has been reported to underestimate human cognitive effort. In this paper, we begin by exploring internal layers that better estimate human cognitive effort observed in syntactic ambiguity processing in English. Our experiments show that, in contrast to naturalistic reading, later layers better estimate such a cognitive effort, but still underestimate the human data. This dual alignment sheds light on different modes of sentence processing in humans and LMs: naturalistic reading employs a somewhat weak prediction akin to earlier layers of LMs, while syntactically challenging processing requires more fully-contextualized representations, better modeled by later layers of LMs. Motivated by these findings, we also explore several probability-update measures using shallow and deep layers of LMs, showing a complementary advantage to single-layer's surprisal in reading time modeling.