Physics-informed Conditional Normalizing Flows for Angles-only Cislunar Orbit Determination

Circular data, representing angles or directions, are frequently encountered in computer vision, biology, geology, and meteorology. Traditional regression targets the conditional mean, which is often geometrically misleading for circular responses under multimodal, skewed, or asymmetric data structures. To address these limitations, a lightweight deep generative framework, namely ANGLE, is introduced for non-parametric distributional regression on the circle. The full conditional distribution of an angular response, given Euclidean and circular covariates, is learned through a generative map optimized via a generalized circular energy score (GCES) loss. Desirable theoretical properties, including the strict propriety of the loss and the rotational equivariance of the estimators, are established. Furthermore, both pre- and post-additive noise models are accommodated. A unified toolbox is provided for advancing previously underexplored challenges in circular statistics: extrapolation, sufficient dimension reduction, and conditional distribution equality testing. The framework's efficacy is demonstrated through extensive simulations and real-world applications. Specifically, the proposal is utilized for object pose estimation from imagery and wind direction prediction, which are integral to surveillance, autonomous vehicles, and energy systems, respectively. Superior predictive performance and robust uncertainty quantification of the proposed method in these tasks are revealed.

Reliable celestial attitude determination is a critical requirement for autonomous spacecraft navigation, yet traditional "Lost-in-Space" (LIS) algorithms often suffer from high computational overhead and sensitivity to sensor-induced noise. While deep learning has emerged as a promising alternative, standard regression models are often confounded by the non-Euclidean topology of the celestial sphere and by the periodic boundary conditions of Right Ascension (RA) and Declination (Dec). In this paper, we present Star-Fusion, a multi-modal architecture that reformulates orientation estimation as a discrete topological classification task. Our approach leverages spherical K-Means clustering to partition the celestial sphere into K topologically consistent regions, effectively mitigating coordinate wrapping artifacts. The proposed architecture employs a tripartite fusion strategy: a SwinV2-Tiny transformer backbone for photometric feature extraction, a convolutional heatmap branch for spatial grounding, and a coordinate-based MLP for geometric anchoring. Experimental evaluations on a synthetic Hipparcos-derived dataset demonstrate that Star-Fusion achieves a Top-1 accuracy of 93.4% and a Top-3 accuracy of 97.8%. Furthermore, the model exhibits high computational efficiency, maintaining an inference latency of 18.4 ms on resource-constrained COTS hardware, making it a viable candidate for real-time onboard deployment in next-generation satellite constellations.

Accurate posterior estimation is central to scientific inference, as uncertainties determine what can be reliably learned from observational data. While Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide asymptotic convergence guarantees, they are computationally demanding in high-dimensional settings. Neural network-based generative models for entire discretized 3D fields enable fast amortized inference but often lack convergence guarantees and principled accuracy assessment. Using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to obtain reference posterior samples, we conduct a controlled field-level evaluation of an implicit generative model (Stochastic Interpolants) and an explicit likelihood-based model (GLOW normalizing flows). This comparison, unavailable in typical applications, enables the detection of posterior geometry failures that standard metrics cannot capture. As a case study, we consider the cosmological inverse problem of inferring cosmic initial conditions from present-day large-scale structure. To match the precision of modern cosmological data, this problem increasingly relies on complex, non-linear, and non-differentiable simulators, which are incompatible with gradient-based inference frameworks. Generative models offer a route to address these challenges, provided their inferred posteriors are reliable. In this work, we show that matching posterior means, marginal distributions, or achieving high cross-correlation does not imply correct uncertainty structure, as revealed by posterior variance fields and sample-based evaluations. Through this work, we aim to raise awareness of the challenges of uncertainty estimation in high-dimensional field-level settings, highlighting the importance of careful design and validation of neural generative approaches for scientific applications.