Learning dynamical systems from noisy data with Weak-form Kernel Ridge Regression
Authors: Max Kreider, John Harlim, Daning Huang
Organizations: Department of Mathematics The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA · Department of Mathematics, Institute for Computational and Data Sciences The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA · Department of Aerospace Engineering The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Accurate prediction of complex dynamical systems from noisy measurements remains a significant challenge in scientific computing. Kernel ridge regression learning strategies are often effective when applied to clean data, but have limited success with noisy data. Recent work has observed that a weak formulation can act to filter noisy data, and different learning strategies have achieved increased noise robustness with a weak-form framework. In this manuscript, we give an overview of the filtering mechanism behind the weak formulation and provide a bias-variance error decomposition. Using these insights, we combine a weak formulation with a kernel learning strategy to propose Weak-form Kernel Ridge Regression (WKRR) for learning dynamical systems. The proposed framework is simple to implement, effective for both clean and noisy data, and outperforms several baseline methods. We demonstrate the performance of WKRR on chaotic benchmark systems in up to 64 dimensions, as well as 15,000-dimensional real-world fluid data.
The accurate forecasting of complex, high-dimensional dynamical systems from observational data is a fundamental task across numerous scientific and engineering disciplines. A significant challenge arises from noise-corrupted measurements, which severely degrade the performance of data-driven models. In chaotic dynamical systems, where small initial errors amplify exponentially, it is particularly difficult to develop a model from noisy data that achieves short-term accuracy while preserving long-term invariant properties. To overcome this, we consider the weak formulation as a complementary approach to the classical L2-loss function for training models of dynamical systems. We empirically verify that the weak formulation, with a proper choice of test function and integration domain, effectively filters noisy data. This insight explains why a weak form loss function is analogous to fitting a model to filtered data and provides a practical way to parameterize the weak form. Subsequently, we demonstrate how this approach overcomes the instability and inaccuracy of standard Neural ODE (NODE) in modeling chaotic systems. Through numerical examples, we show that our proposed training strategy, the Weak Penalty NODE, is computationally efficient, solver-agnostic, and yields accurate and robust forecasts across benchmark chaotic systems and a real-world climate dataset.
Many systems resist analytical modeling, making data-driven inference of dynamics important. Yet data-driven methods can fail to converge or generalize, leaving open a central question: When can system behavior be learned reliably from data, and when is such learning impossible? We answer this question using adversarial dynamical systems to identify the boundary between accessible and inaccessible regimes. In Koopman operator learning, a leading framework for representing nonlinear dynamics through linear spectral objects, we design optimal data-driven spectral algorithms with convergence and certification guarantees under conditions arising broadly in physical systems. This yields a convergence theory for Koopman-operator approximations and resolves a longstanding open problem in Koopman spectral analysis. Conversely, by constructing adversarial systems, we prove matching impossibility results: without these conditions, no single-sequence limiting procedure can guarantee learning, regardless of data quality. These results sharply characterize when data-driven spectral learning can succeed and when it must fail. We validate the framework on oscillators, chaotic fluid flows and Arctic sea ice concentration forecasting. In the latter, we uncover hidden modes of Arctic sea ice decline, deliver long-range forecasts with geographic error bounds, and outperform state-of-the-art dynamical and deep learning models at substantially lower computational cost, enabling real-time deployment on standard CPUs.
Matthew J. Colbrook, Igor Mezić, Alexei Stepanenko
In recent years, weak-form methods have made significant advances in data-driven discovery of dynamical systems. However, in high-dimensional settings, current techniques can prove expensive in both computation and memory. In this work, we introduce TT-WSINDy, which combines techniques of the Multidimensional Approximation of Nonlinear Dynamics (MANDy) and Weak Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (WSINDy) methods, implementing requisite computations in the tensor-train (TT) format. We demonstrate that this method is able to search an exponentially-growing space of candidate functions -- performing weak-form transformation, regression, and sparsification -- without suffering from the curse of dimensionality.