cs.CLJul 4, 2026

NormWorlds-CF: Solver-Verified Counterfactual Normative Reasoning with Metamorphic-Relation GRPO

Authors: Xinqi Zhang

Organizations: Tsinghua University

Abstract

Language models can reach the right normative verdict for the wrong reason. We introduce NormWorlds-CF, a solver-verified environment for counterfactual normative reasoning in executable rule worlds. Its deterministic solver produces final answers, proof and falsification certificates, argument statuses, support sets, and paired-world change labels, enabling supervision and evaluation without LLM judges. The benchmark contains staged SFT diagnostics and a compact paired-world task with 270 root families and 1080 canonical-to-variant pairs. The SFT diagnostics show that final-answer supervision is an unsafe proxy: answer-only SFT reaches perfect accuracy on answer tasks but scores zero on falsification, while proof-plus-falsification training with targeted replay reaches strong all-task accuracy. For the structured-change task, we introduce metamorphic-relation GRPO (MR-GRPO), a class-conditioned reward for GRPO that gives partial credit for relation families and solver-visible change fields. In matched 1.7B continuation experiments, MR-GRPO improves held-out relation accuracy and relation-family correctness, and reduces wrong-family error, compared to sparse and answer-only GRPO. In Qwen3-4B three-seed validation, answer-only reward improves answer-change fields but weakens relation-family structure, sparse reward preserves coarse relation labels best, and MR-GRPO delivers the strongest balanced performance across answer-change, support-change, status-change, and soft root-level metamorphic-relation metrics. These results show that verified counterfactual structure can shape post-training beyond final answers, while exact full change-record generation, invariant subtype recognition, and out-of-distribution (OOD) transfer remain open problems.

Explore similar work

May 15, 2026cs.AI

Deterministic Event-Graph Substrates as World Models for Counterfactual Reasoning

We study event-graph substrates: a class of world models that represent agent state as an append-only log of typed RDF triples and answer counterfactual queries by forking the log under a structured intervention vocabulary. Substrates are inspectable at the triple level, support exact counterfactuals, and transfer across domains without learned components. We formalize the class, prove a duality between explanatory and counterfactual queries that reduces both to the same causal-ancestor traversal, and evaluate a 1,400-line CLEVRER-DSL interpreter atop a domain-agnostic substrate runtime at full CLEVRER validation scale (n=75,618). The substrate exceeds the NS-DR symbolic oracle on all four per-question categories (by 9.89, 20.26, 17.65, and 0.80 percentage points), and exceeds the parametric ALOE baseline on descriptive and explanatory while lagging on predictive and counterfactual. We also introduce twin-EventLog, a 500-specification Park-canonical Smallville counterfactual benchmark on which the substrate exceeds Llama-3.1-8B with full context by 18.80 points joint accuracy.
Fabio Rovai
Sep 15, 2026cs.CL

EviScope: Paired Counterfactual Evidence Diagnostics for Faithful and Efficient Grounded Language Models

Grounded language-model systems are often evaluated by final answer accuracy, yet a correct answer can be unsupported, drawn from the wrong source, or produced when evidence is insufficient or contradictory. We introduce EviScope, a paired counterfactual benchmark that holds the question fixed while adding, removing, distracting, or contradicting its evidence. EviScope-v1.1 contains 40 four-condition quartets with repaired counterfactual claims and span-level support labels for automatic evaluation. Across 960 gold-blind generations from Qwen2.5-7B, Llama 3.1 8B, and Gemini 3.5 Flash, paired metrics expose model-dependent grounding behavior that answer accuracy hides. On two local open models, an explicit evidence-action gate underperforms vanilla RAG on QCS: 0.15 vs. 0.50 for Qwen and 0.10 vs. 0.375 for Llama. Gemini reaches 0.944 joint success under both prompts, yet still answers 5% of conflict cases after contradiction insertion. EviScope therefore distinguishes unsupported answering, conflict blindness, and wrong non-answer actions rather than scoring answers alone.
Suryadeep Singh Deswal
Jun 9, 2026cs.AI

WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.
Fabio Rovai