stat.MLJul 5, 2026

On Pairwise Quantile Regression -- Statistical Guarantees and Applications

Authors: Romain ThérézienStephan ClémençonFantin GirardHamza El-Abdouni

Organizations: 1LTCI, Télécom Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris · 2Idémia · 3Télécom Sud-Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris

Abstract

Quantile regression provides a powerful tool for summarizing the conditional distribution of a real valued random variable (r.v.) of interest YY as a function of covariates ZZ in cases where it shows a large dispersion with high probability, going beyond the situation where standard least square regression is informative/predictive. This article aims to extend this methodology to the pairwise case, when the variable to be explained takes the form of a similarity function between two independent observations, such as pixelated ID photos, as input data of biometric systems) and the explanatory variables take the form of a pair of covariates of the observations, such as the age or the hair color. We establish theoretical guarantees for solutions of this statistical learning problem, considered here as empirical minimizers of a pairwise version of the pinball loss. Leveraging sharp concentration results for UU-processes, we prove generalization bounds and identify mild conditions under which fast learning rates can be achieved. Confirming the probabilistic analysis, experiments based on simulation data also provide solid empirical evidence of the validity of the methodology promoted here for pairwise quantile regression. Finally, its usefulness from an application perspective is demonstrated by a detailed study aimed at analyzing errors in similarity scoring for facial recognition.

Explore similar work

Jun 1, 2026stat.ML

Doing well with less! On Sampling Techniques for Empirical Pairwise Loss Estimation/Minimization

Many machine learning problems, including similarity learning, ranking, and clustering, rely on empirical pairwise loss functions whose quadratic computational cost quickly becomes prohibitive at scale. We demonstrate how a frugal approach that retains only a fraction of the available information on pairs can achieve estimation or optimization performance comparable to that obtained by using all pairs, by leveraging survey sampling techniques. A central finding, supported by both theory and experiments, is that such sampling plans must target pairs directly rather than individual observations. In particular, for pairwise losses between high-dimensional vectors such as embeddings in vision or graph learning, assigning higher inclusion probabilities to informative pairs using suitable auxiliary information yields performance close to full pairwise evaluation, providing a principled and theoretically grounded trade-off between accuracy and computational cost.
Louise Davy, Stephan Clémençon, Charlotte Laclau
Sep 21, 2026math.ST

Conformalized Quantile Regression and Minimax Limits of Fixed-Score Calibration under Known Covariate Shift

In this paper, we study nonasymptotic LpL^p error bounds for interval length and conditional coverage in split conformalized quantile regression (CQR). Our bounds rely on local regularity conditions and accuracy guarantees for the estimated quantiles. We further instantiate our bounds for quantile regression with sparse ReLU neural networks. We also consider covariate shift, where the calibration and test covariates have different distributions, and derive nonasymptotic bounds for this setting. We obtain matching minimax upper and lower bounds in expectation for two constructed fixed-score calibration benchmarks under known covariate shift. The bounds match for every p[1,]p\in[1,\infty] in the scalar problem and for finite pp in the KK-threshold problem; for the latter, a high-probability minimax lower bound holds for every p[1,]p\in[1,\infty].
Rustam Isaev, Anton Conrad, Denis Belomestny +2
May 7, 2026stat.ML

ConquerNet: Convolution-Smoothed Quantile ReLU Neural Networks with Minimax Guarantees

Quantile regression is a fundamental tool for distributional learning but poses significant optimization challenges for deep models due to the non-smoothness of the pinball loss. We propose ConquerNet, a class of \textbf{con}volution-smoothed \textbf{qu}antil\textbf{e} \textbf{R}eLU neural \textbf{net}works, which yield smooth objectives while preserving the underlying quantile structure. We establish general nonasymptotic risk bounds for ConquerNet under mild conditions, providing minimax guarantees over Besov function classes. In numerical studies, we demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms standard quantile neural networks at multiple quantile levels, showing improved estimation accuracy and training efficiency across the board, with particularly pronounced advantages at high and low quantiles.
Tianpai Luo, Fangwei Wu, Weichi Wu