Fitted Occupancy-Ratio Evaluation without Bellman Completeness
Authors: Lars van der Laan, Nathan Kallus
Organizations: Stanford University · Netflix · Cornell University
Abstract
Occupancy ratios correct distribution shift in offline reinforcement learning and are central to off-policy evaluation. Existing primal-dual and minimax methods typically estimate these ratios by enforcing occupancy-balance moments over a critic class. We propose fitted occupancy-ratio evaluation (FORE), a fitted fixed-point method that characterizes the discounted occupancy ratio through an adjoint Bellman recursion. At each iteration, FORE solves a single-level density-ratio objective on one-step-transition data, thereby projecting the adjoint Bellman image onto a log-ratio class in Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence. Unlike analyses of fitted Q-evaluation, which typically require value-function realizability together with Bellman completeness or projected-operator stability, our central approximation condition is just realizability of the discounted occupancy ratio itself. Under this condition, the population KL-projected recursion contracts in relative entropy toward the true ratio by virtue of the adjoint Bellman operator being a KL-contraction. For the empirical recursion, we establish finite-sample regret bounds that yield convergence in KL up to log-ratio approximation error and a statistical error governed by the complexity of the ratio hypothesis class. The fitted ratio supports direct value estimation by reward reweighting, occupancy-weighted fitted Q-evaluation, and doubly robust estimation that combines the fitted ratio with a fitted Q-function. Together, these results identify discounted occupancy-ratio realizability as a sufficient condition for offline policy evaluation without any completeness assumptions.
Fitted Q-evaluation (FQE) is a standard regression-based method for off-policy evaluation, but under distribution shift, value-function realizability alone does not ensure convergence, and existing analyses often require Bellman completeness. We trace this instability to a geometric mismatch: standard FQE projects Bellman targets in the norm induced by the offline distribution, which need not preserve Bellman contraction. We therefore study \emph{occupancy-weighted FQE}, which changes only the regression weights. Weighting by a target-policy discounted occupancy ratio aligns the projection norm with the target-policy dynamics and restores contraction of the population projected Bellman operator. We derive finite-sample guarantees with estimated occupancy ratios and function-class misspecification, separating finite-iteration, statistical, approximation, and ratio-estimation errors. Exact occupancy weighting removes the need for Bellman completeness; with estimated weights, approximate completeness and value-function realizability reduce sensitivity to ratio-estimation error, with exact realizability yielding higher-order dependence. Combining occupancy-weighted FQE with fitted occupancy-ratio evaluation gives an end-to-end guarantee governed by the complexities and direct approximation errors of the value-function and occupancy-ratio classes. Under coverage, joint realizability of these two classes suffices for consistent estimation without Bellman or critic-side completeness. Controlled experiments illustrate the projection-norm mechanism and the finite-sample tradeoff between contraction and coverage.
Fitted Q-iteration (FQI) is a standard regression-based method for optimal control in offline reinforcement learning, but its stability under function approximation often relies on Bellman completeness, which requires Bellman images of the fitted class to remain in the class. We study Kullback--Leibler (KL)-regularized, or soft, FQI relative to a fixed reference policy without this assumption. Our key insight is that soft control locally inherits the contraction of policy evaluation in a discounted-occupancy norm. At the soft-optimal fixed point, the linearization of the soft Bellman operator is exactly the Bellman operator for the soft-optimal policy, which contracts in its discounted-occupancy norm; projection in the same norm preserves this contraction. Standard soft FQI instead projects under the offline state-action distribution and need not preserve this property. Motivated by this observation, we propose \emph{occupancy-reweighted soft FQI}, which retains standard Bellman targets and least-squares updates while reweighting regressions by discounted-occupancy ratios induced by the current soft policy. Under Q-function realizability and local regularity, we establish local contraction and finite-sample convergence with estimated ratios, without Bellman completeness. We then use temperature annealing to convert the local result into global convergence from arbitrary initialization: sufficiently high temperature provides a globally contractive starting regime, while gradual cooling connects successive local contraction regions to any prescribed positive target temperature. Under an action-gap margin condition, switching at a fixed positive temperature to hard FQI with refreshed occupancy weights also yields population and finite-sample convergence to the unregularized optimum.
We present a novel theoretical framework, Q-MMR, for off-policy evaluation in finite-horizon MDPs. Q-MMR learns a set of scalar weights, one for each data point, such that the reweighted rewards approximate the expected return under the target policy. The weights are learned inductively in a top-down manner via a moment matching objective against a value-function discriminator class. Notably, and perhaps surprisingly, a data-dependent finite-sample guarantee for general function approximation can be established under only the realizability of Qπ, with a dimension-free bound -- that is, the error does not depend on the statistical complexity of the function class. We also establish connections to several existing methods, such as importance sampling and linear FQE. Further theoretical analyses shed new light on the nature of coverage, a concept of fundamental importance to offline RL.