Prior-matched evaluation of operational Earth-observation classifiers: a three-number reporting method demonstrated on Sentinel-1 internal-wave detection
The Internal Waves Service screens the Sentinel-1 Wave-mode archive for internal solitary waves, routing detections to experts whose adjudication time is the resource the effort exists to conserve. Because attention is the cost of error, precision leads. Its classifier was trained and reported at a one-to-one class balance, fixed before the operational rate could be known. That rate has since emerged at roughly one scene in twenty, and a balanced-test score badly overstates the precision a validator meets. A model that scores 0.794 balanced-test precision scores 0.192 in real operation: the gap is a systematic artefact of reporting at the wrong prior, invisible to the metric most work quotes. We show the mismatch to be an evaluation problem in the costume of a training one at a fixed recall, prior correction and calibration cannot move precision, and answer it with a prior-matched reporting method based on three figures: balanced-test, operational-prior, and real post-deployment, whose contrast is the honest measure. A precision-first, leakage-controlled development cycle then improves the classifier lever by lever, each promoted only against a pre-registered margin; added capacity not clearing it, calibration inert, feature aggregation the one real lift, so the honest negatives are as much a result as the gain. Holding recall at a floor of 0.80 and certifying against a sealed, single-read lockbox, the promoted model reports 0.927 precision at the operational prior; an out-of-time check confirms discrimination transfers to unseen periods while a fixed operating point does not. Prior-matched reporting, begin balanced, then move to the prior as the stream reveals it, transfers to any operational Earth-observation service bootstrapping a rare-event detector under a prior it has yet to discover.
Monitoring of offshore wind energy infrastructure life cycles, especially during the deployment phase, is an important contribution for stakeholders to make informed decisions in a phase of increasing deployment activities. ESA's Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) mission produces large data archives that enable the global monitoring of offshore wind infrastructure. Turning these high-volume archives into information requires algorithms that automatically extract single event labels from dense time series at a global scale. In this study, we present a structured comparison of ten deep learning model-training variants for the dense classification of Sentinel-1 based offshore wind infrastructure time series, aiming to advance rule-based event classification of this task. We trained LSTM, Transformer, and fully connected model variants with monotemporal, unidirectional, and bidirectional context awareness, each with and without self-supervised pretraining. Among these, the supervised BiLSTM performs best, raising the target AUC score from 0.7853 for the rule-based baseline to 0.8509, and the perfect match rate from 0.3508 to 0.5063. Combining the BiLSTM predictions with the existing baseline labels in a label-transition-minimising ensemble further improves agreement with the test data. Using these improved labels, we isolate the deployment phase of individual turbines at a global scale and conduct a regional and subregional analysis covering 2016-01-01 to 2025-03-31, reporting median deployment durations of 84 d (China), 242 d (EU), and 258 d (UK). Deployment-related drivers, including legal regulations such as subsidies, and environmental conditions, emerge clearly from the analysed results across multiple spatial scales.
Learned generative priors now supply the regularization in ill-posed imaging inverse problems, and the uncertainty read from their posterior samples is taken as evidence earned from data. When examples of the true image are scarce, as in seismic and medical imaging, the widely adopted recourse is to train such a prior not on truths but on an archive of past reconstructions---prior laundering. We show that the uncertainty it then reports can be overconfident, and that no measurement-side check can reveal it. On the directions a forward operator leaves unresolved, this prior reports not what the data support but the assumption built into the older reconstruction method. More specifically, when the archive holds posterior samples, its population law---averaged over the measurements---is exactly the old regularizer advanced a single expectation--maximization step, frozen on the operator's blind subspace. The freeze leaves no signature in the data. Two truths differing only there induce identical data laws, so no goodness-of-fit test separates them, and self-consistency diagnostics, simulation-based calibration among them, pass whatever the prior believes. In the more realistic case, where the archive keeps a single-best reconstruction rather than posterior samples, the blind credible interval collapses to zero width. We prove these statements and demonstrate the inherited overconfidence on deployed seismic and groundwater imaging against a truth-trained control. We recommend reporting which directions the operator resolves---separating the confidence the data support from belief inherited through the pipeline.
The offshore wind energy sector is expanding rapidly, increasing the need for independent, high-temporal-resolution monitoring of infrastructure deployment and operation at global scale. While Earth Observation based offshore wind infrastructure mapping has matured for spatial localization, existing open datasets lack temporally dense and semantically fine-grained information on construction and operational dynamics. We introduce a global Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series data corpus that resolves deployment and operational phases of offshore wind infrastructure from 2016Q1 to 2025Q1. Building on an updated object detection workflow, we compile 15,606 time series at detected infrastructure locations, with overall 14,840,637 events as analysis-ready 1D SAR backscatter profiles, one profile per Sentinel-1 acquisition and location. To enable direct use and benchmarking, we release (i) the analysis ready 1D SAR profiles, (ii) event-level baseline semantic labels generated by a rule-based classifier, and (iii) an expert-annotated benchmark dataset of 553 time series with 328,657 event labels. The baseline classifier achieves a macro F1 score of 0.84 in event-wise evaluation and an area under the collapsed edit similarity-quality threshold curve (AUC) of 0.785, indicating temporal coherence. We demonstrate that the resulting corpus supports global-scale analyses of deployment dynamics, the identification of differences in regional deployment patterns, vessel interactions, and operational events, and provides a reference for developing and comparing time series classification methods for offshore wind infrastructure monitoring.