Who Gets Missed in the Tail? Thresholded Subgroup Underdiagnosis in Long-Tailed Chest X-ray Classification

Chest X-ray (CXR) interpretation is hindered by the long-tailed distribution of pathologies and the open-world nature of clinical environments. Existing benchmarks often rely on closed-set classes from a single institution, failing to capture the prevalence of rare diseases or the appearance of novel findings. To address this, we present the CXR-LT challenge. The first event, CXR-LT 2023, established a large-scale benchmark for long-tailed multi-label CXR classification and identified key challenges in rare disease recognition. CXR-LT 2024 further expanded the label space and introduced a zero-shot task to study generalization to unseen findings. Building on the success of CXR-LT 2023 and 2024, this third iteration of the benchmark introduces a multi-center dataset comprising over 145,000 images from PadChest and NIH Chest X-ray datasets. Additionally, all development and test sets in CXR-LT 2026 are annotated by radiologists, providing a more reliable and clinically grounded evaluation than report-derived labels. The challenge defines two core tasks this year: (1) Robust Multi-Label Classification on 30 known classes and (2) Open-World Generalization to 6 unseen (out-of-distribution) rare disease classes. This paper summarizes the overview of the CXR-LT 2026 challenge. We describe the data collection and annotation procedures, analyze solution strategies adopted by participating teams, and evaluate head-versus-tail performance, calibration, and cross-center generalization gaps. Our results show that vision-language foundation models improve both in-distribution and zero-shot performance, but detecting rare findings under multi-center shift remains challenging. Our study provides a foundation for developing and evaluating AI systems in realistic long-tailed and open-world clinical conditions.

Chest X-ray multi-label classification is a core task in intelligent medical imaging diagnosis. However, real clinical data often exhibit extreme long-tailed distributions, leading to degraded performance on rare diseases in tail classes. This issue is not only driven by data scarcity but also by two intrinsic factors:1) attenuation of tail-class lesion representations under complex anatomical backgrounds, and 2) dominance of head classes in modeling label co-occurrence relationships. To address these challenges, we propose TRCGL-Net. First, a learnable text-guided conditional diffusion model is employed to generate high-quality tail-class chest X-ray image samples under disease semantic constraints, improving data diversity and realism of rare disease patterns while alleviating class imbalance and preserving pathology-consistent semantics.Second, a channel reweighting mechanism is introduced to perform feature recalibration by emphasizing disease-relevant feature channels, thereby improving feature discriminability under long-tailed distributions.A class-aware attention mechanism is further applied to generate class-specific attention maps, enabling the model to localize disease-relevant regions and focus on fine-grained lesion areas.Finally, a graph convolution network based on label co occurrence is introduced to establish an information propagation mechanism among categories. Experiments on the PadChest dataset show that the proposed method achieves a tail-class mAP of 0.4904, an overall mAP of 0.4408, and an mAUC of 0.8989, outperforming state-of-the-art methods. TRCGL-Net effectively improves recognition performance for rare diseases under long-tailed distributions and mitigates the impact of extreme class imbalance in chest X-ray multi-label classification.

Foundation models are increasingly adapted for downstream medical imaging tasks, yet the influence of the chosen adaptation strategy on subgroup fairness remains poorly understood. We investigate how three parameter-efficient adaptation techniques, including linear heads on the raw CLS token, an MLP, and an attention-pooling module over multi-layer patch features, affect both pathology classification performance and subgroup disparities when applied to the frozen Rad-DINO chest X-ray encoder. Using MIMIC-CXR, we evaluate eight pathologies across race, sex, and imaging-view subgroups on a prevalence-preserving, demographically balanced test set, and additionally probe how strongly each adapter encodes protected attributes. We find that attention pooling achieves the strongest overall discriminative performance and encodes attributes, particularly race, most strongly, but that improved overall performance does not consistently reduce subgroup disparities. Notably, stronger attribute encoding did not correspond to larger disparities: early network layers encoded race most weakly yet produced the largest subgroup performance gaps. Exploring different attention-pooling layer combinations further revealed no consistent relationship between the layers pooled, attribute encoding strength, and subgroup fairness. Our results indicate that richer, more expressive representations can improve accuracy while leaving fairness implications task-dependent and unpredictable, which must be assessed directly and per-task rather than inferred from encoding strength or overall performance alone.