AI-integrated models for assessing agricultural resilience

Joshua R. Waite; Dana Golden; Brett Indelicato; Kevin Camp; Mojdeh Saadati; Shannon Regan; Patrick Schnable; Baskar Ganapathysubramanian

cs.AIJul 8, 2026

AI-integrated models for assessing agricultural resilience

Authors: Joshua R. Waite, Dana Golden, Brett Indelicato, Kevin Camp, Mojdeh Saadati, Shannon Regan, Patrick Schnable, Baskar Ganapathysubramanian, +3 more

Abstract

Agricultural supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions through linked biophysical and economic systems. We develop an AI-powered tool that integrates economic models (GTAP) with biophysical models (APSIM) to analyze supply chain shocks, enabling policymakers and market participants to assess cross-disciplinary impacts through queries and responses written in natural language.

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Jun 9, 2026 · cs.AIJ/K move · Enter open · S save

ReflectiChain: Epistemic Grounding in LLM-Driven World Models for Supply Chain Resilience

Jia Luo

AI agents in supply chains face a fundamental epistemic gap: large language models (LLMs) interpret policies but lack physical grounding, while reinforcement learning (RL) optimizes flows but is semantically blind to unstructured constraints. We introduce REFLECTICHAIN, bridging this gap through a Generative Supply Chain World Model (SC-WM) - encoding heterogeneous supply networks into a 6-dim graph-latent space with physical conservation - and Double-Loop Learning that separates epistemic uncertainty (KL-trust-region-bounded policy adaptation) from aleatoric uncertainty (stochastic latent rollouts). On Semi-Sim, a 10-node semiconductor benchmark with SIR risk propagation, 6 perturbation types, and 10 policy constraint templates, REFLECTICHAIN improves Rationale Consistency Score by 33.0% (p < 0.0001, d = 2.78), maintains 82.3% operability under adversarial shocks, and exhibits anti-fragile behavior (+40.2% gain under moderate pressure). We identify three operational epistemic mechanisms - uncertainty separation, knowledge-boundary detection, and empirical Bayesian policy updating - and discuss five limitation categories.

Supply Chain Optimization Llm-Driven Epistemic Actions World Models

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Abstract

Explore similar work

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