Adaptive Bayes exactly tracks information over intrinsic time

Bayesian online learning promises uncertainty-aware prediction on data streams, but its performance hinges on inferential choices, including learning rates, prior distributions and variational families, which are usually fixed before seeing the stream. We address this by treating Bayesian update rules as experts and aggregating the Bayesian experts according to sequential predictive losses. We prove that the resulting aggregate competes with the best expert in hindsight at an aggregation cost determined by how each expert's per-round performance is evaluated. We instantiate the framework in online conformal inference and Gaussian process regression. The conformal inference application yields a smoothed Bayesian counterpart of adaptive conformal inference with long-run randomized coverage, while the Gaussian process application gives an oracle inequality in cumulative predictive Kullback-Leibler risk and adaptation to unknown Hölder smoothness up to logarithmic factors. Experiments show that the aggregate tracks strong experts without oracle expert selection.

Adaptive learning needs both a state that preserves what observations imply and opportunities to act on that state. We study this width--depth tradeoff in stochastic Lipschitz bandits. After each pull, the learner retains at most $W$ bits of live reward-dependent state and organizes its pulls into at most $B$ committed batches. For $W\gtrsim_d\log(eT)$, we characterize minimax expected pseudo-regret up to logarithmic factors; the lower bounds hold for every $W$. Besides the classical sequential and unrestricted-memory batch costs, the frontier contains the new penalty $$T^{\frac{d+2}{d+3}} \bigl(1+(B-1)W\bigr)^{-\frac1{d(d+3)}},$$ proving that state width and update depth are not interchangeable. The interaction is an information-routing constraint: at regional scale $s$, low regret forces the committed action transcript to encode $Θ_d(s^{-d})$ regional decisions, while the collected boundary states carry at most $(B-1)W$ bits of entropy. Matching policies stream and erase verification statistics while retaining a mask of a safe active set, either in memory or fragment by fragment. The theorem recovers the full-dimensional worst-case batch-only frontier and logarithmic-memory achievability in the fully sequential specialization; static batch boundaries match predictable adaptive ones.

A learner probes at most $k$ of $n$ arms each round, receives the maximum of their rewards in $[0,1]$, and competes with the best fixed arm. When does the probing advantage pay for learning? We determine two minimax laws. Under independent stochastic rewards with winner feedback (the maximum and a winning label), or on arbitrary fixed sequences given a single signed contrast between block maxima, the minimax regret has order $Φ_{n,k}(T)=\min\{\frac{n-k}{n}T,\frac{n-k}{k}\}$, $2\le k<n$. Under winner feedback, both arbitrary joint i.i.d. rewards and fixed sequences have minimax regret of order $R_{n,k}(T)=\frac{n-k}{n}\min\{T,\frac{n+T}{k},\sqrt{\frac{nT}{k}}\}$. Both laws have universal constants and anytime upper bounds. The first reduces regret to a pure coverage cost: same-round contrasts absorb the stability cost, and independence permits exact resampling whose gains fund sample advancement. The second adds a learning cost that becomes comparable to coverage at horizon $n$; beyond $nk$, numerical maxima improve over labels alone. The lower bound allows every adaptive action size.