Diffusion-Residual Model Predictive Steering Control for Vehicle Stabilization at the Limit of Handling under Model Uncertainty

Sampling-based model predictive control methods handle nonlinear dynamics and complex cost landscapes through Monte Carlo rollouts, yet typically employ fixed constraint penalties that do not adapt to model-plant mismatch. This paper proposes Residual-Conservative Model Predictive Path Integral Control (RC-MPPI), a sampling-based MPC framework that modulates safety conservatism online using the prediction-execution residual. RC-MPPI combines three coupled mechanisms: residual-dependent constraint tightening, adaptive safety-cost shaping, and residual-adaptive sampling modulation through exploration contraction and temperature relaxation. The temperature adaptation reflects a key insight: when the model is inaccurate, rollout cost evaluations become unreliable, and increasing temperature reduces overcommitment to apparent cost rankings. Under Lipschitz dynamics and sub-Gaussian disturbances, we derive probabilistic bounds on constraint violation and show that the joint effect of the adaptive mechanisms reduces violation probability as the residual grows. A rollout-cost uncertainty analysis further shows that model-plant mismatch perturbs MPPI importance weights in proportion to residual magnitude and inversely with temperature, providing theoretical justification for residual-adaptive temperature relaxation. Simulations on an LTI point-mass system and a planar 2R manipulator show improved safety margin, success rate, and control efficiency compared with vanilla MPPI under significant model-plant mismatch.

A key limitation on the use of diffusion models in robotic planning is their inability to inherently enforce safety or dynamical constraints, which often results in physically infeasible or unsafe outputs. Hybrid approaches that employ model predictive control (MPC) to address this problem can be unstable, as poor trajectory initializations from the diffusion model prevent the MPC from converging to a safe and feasible solution. To overcome these challenges, we propose D-SafeMPC, which enhances the interaction between diffusion and control. Our method guides the reverse diffusion process with control barrier functions (CBFs) and control Lyapunov functions (CLFs) and employs an iterative-projection scheme where an MPC refines the trajectory at each denoising step. This steers sampling toward safe, goal-directed regions and provides reliable MPC warm starts. In simulations on a Franka manipulator across four scenarios (one static-obstacle and three dynamic-obstacle settings) and in a sim-to-real experiment on a physical Franka robot, D-SafeMPC improves safety, task success rates, and planning efficiency over state-of-the-art baselines. To facilitate reproducibility, our source code and experimental configurations are available in a repository at https://github.com/erdiphd/D-SafeMPC

World models can enable Model Predictive Control (MPC), but this requires dynamics prediction that is both fast enough for online use and expressive enough to represent uncertain futures. Diffusion models offer a natural mechanism for modeling uncertain dynamics, yet their iterative inference procedure makes them difficult to use for low-latency latent planning. We bridge this gap with Value Diffusion World Models (Valdi), combining end-to-end online training for MPC with a latent diffusion dynamics model. In preliminary experiments on the CarRacing environment, we show that Valdi, using a single diffusion step at both training and inference, matches a deterministic MLP baseline. Our experiments expose a trade-off between predictive multimodality and control performance in this setup. Code is available at https://github.com/Kit115/ValueDiffusionWorldModels.