Cost-Optimal Foundation Model Deployment Portfolio for Transportation Management

This paper presents a forward-looking vision for integrating the emerging multi-modal multi-task federated foundation models (M3T FedFMs) into vehicular networks, with the goal of unifying the expressive power of multi-modal multi-task foundation models (M3T FMs) with the privacy-preserving and distributed learning capabilities of federated learning (FL). Given the largely underexplored nature of this research direction, we first introduce the fundamental training/fine-tuning principles of M3T FedFMs. We then discuss a range of their representative use cases in vehicular networks, illustrating the significant potential of M3T FedFMs to enable next-generation vehicular intelligence. Afterwards, we identify key constraints inherent to vehicular environments that challenge the practical deployment of M3T FedFMs, and articulate a set of forward-looking research directions to address these challenges. Furthermore, through a case study conducted on a real-world vehicular dataset (i.e., Waymo Open Dataset), we demonstrate the promise of M3T FedFMs for vehicular networks and release our implementation to facilitate reproducibility and stimulate research in this emerging area (repository: https://github.com/KasraBorazjani/vehicular-fedfm)

Foundation models (FMs) are increasingly used as backbones for downstream tasks across language, vision, time-series, and multimodal applications. Yet existing model-serving systems deploy each customized task as an independent model instance, thereby replicating heavyweight backbones, wasting accelerator memory, and losing opportunities to amortize batching and loading costs. This paper presents FMplex, a serving system that treats FM backbones as a virtualization substrate for deployment sharing. FMplex presents each task with a virtual foundation model (vFM), a logically private FM instance backed by a shared physical FM. This abstraction lets independently customized tasks share a backbone while preserving task-specific extensions, independent lifecycles, and task-level isolation. In addition, we propose a batch-aware fair-queueing scheduler that combines weighted task-level sharing with inter- and intra-task batching across colocated tasks. We implement a FMplex-based serving stack spanning task construction, sharing-aware deployment, and runtime execution. Across 7 FM backbones (16 variants) and 92 downstream tasks, FMplex reduces latency by up to 80% over spatial partitioning and 33.3% over best-effort co-location, while hosting up to 6x more tasks at cluster scale.

Deploying a time series foundation model requires GPU infrastructure, engineering overhead, and carries no guarantee of improvement over XGBoost. We provide the first systematic break-even analysis answering when this investment pays off. Across 30 benchmark datasets, we compare zero-shot and LoRA fine-tuned foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, Lag-Llama) against classical baselines (Naive, ETS, ARIMA, XGBoost) at six training set sizes from 2% to 100% of available data. Foundation models outperform classical methods at every evaluated training fraction on 15 of 30 datasets -- GPU deployment is unconditionally justified on these regardless of data volume. On 6 datasets, classical methods surpass zero-shot foundation models with as little as 2% of training data (21-2,768 samples); on the remaining 9, break-even ranges from 24 to 8,361 samples. One robust deployment rule requires no model training: if n_train < 700 and seasonality is non-negligible, use FM zero-shot and skip fine-tuning -- this resolves 10 of 30 deployment decisions immediately. Contrary to common practice, LoRA fine-tuning can actively degrade performance on short series. We operationalise these findings as a two-step decision framework -- compute dataset length and seasonality strength, run a brief 5-10% pilot only if needed -- enabling practitioners to make the FM-versus-classical decision before committing to full infrastructure. Four dataset features motivate mechanistic hypotheses for the remaining cases, though reliable automated prediction at this benchmark scale remains an open problem. Code, benchmark, and decision tools are available at https://github.com/nicolaisi/fm-breakeven.