Robust Chance-Constrained Optimization using a Continuous Parameter Space Wasserstein-2 Ambiguity Set of Gaussian Mixtures
Authors: Shibshankar Dey, Sanjay Mehrotra
Organizations: Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University
Abstract
We study distributionally robust linear chance-constrained problems in which uncertainty is modeled by a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Finite-support distributionally robust (FDR) formulations, widely used in data-driven robust optimization, robustify over empirical mixture support points and therefore primarily stress-test the fitted nominal mixture. This can be insufficient when service reliability depends on structural misspecification of the nominal mixture-support parameters. To address this limitation, we describe the ambiguity set of distributions by developing a novel formulation of a Wasserstein-2 metric that uses the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) metric over probability measures with finite second moments. Unlike FDR, which generally sets finitely many empirical support points a priori, the proposed ambiguity set allows the worst-case distribution to endogenously determine both how many mixture components receive mass and where their means and covariances lie within a continuous support. For the resulting ambiguity set, under mild regularity conditions, we prove strong duality for the inner worst-case chance-constraint problem and derive its semi-infinite reformulation. We then develop an adaptive cutting-surface algorithm, which endogenously determines the locations of mixture components receiving mass, and the mean and covariances of the Gaussian distributions at these locations. The algorithm attains any prescribed optimality gap in finitely many iterations, while a block-alternating local search identifies new components. A case study using the electric-vehicle charging-station energy-allocation problem demonstrates the framework's practical value in achieving any reliability targets. CDR also induces structural changes in energy allocations, unlike FDR, whose allocations remain close to the nominal solution.
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is widely used for decision-making under uncertainty, but its adversarial focus on worst-case loss can lead to overly conservative policies. To mitigate this, we study ex-ante Distributionally Robust Regret Optimization (DRRO) with Wasserstein ambiguity sets, designed to balance robustness with upside potential. We develop a theory of Wasserstein DRRO (WDRRO) paralleling Wasserstein DRO. Under smoothness and regularity, WDRRO selects among ERM optima by a first-order gradient-discrepancy rule. If the ERM optimizer is unique, first-order sensitivity vanishes and a second-order expansion governs deviations. For convex quadratics ERM and DRRO coincide for any radius. We then study regimes where these assumptions fail: nondifferentiable max-affine losses, discrete references, and larger radii, where WDRRO can differ from ERM and WDRO. We show that computing WDRRO regret is NP-hard even without bilinear terms. Nevertheless, we develop exact algorithms, a tractable convex relaxation with guarantees, and experiments showing tightness and loss-dependent behavior.
We consider defining risk probability in stochastic control problems under distribution ambiguity. Current approaches for chance-constrained control typically assume that the true state distribution is known and Gaussian distributed. These assumptions are not amenable to many real-world engineering applications where system dynamics are nonlinear and only approximately modeled. In this work, we define a distribution ambiguity set and, with a variational expression for exponential integrals, bound the expected risk value under an unknown distribution that resides within a relative entropy distance of a nominal Gaussian reference distribution. Our bound recovers the reference risk value in the zero-divergence limit. A method is presented to determine the relative entropy distance defining the ambiguity set that is a function of the reference covariance evolution and second-order dynamical truncation errors. The resulting contributions provide a framework for handling distributional ambiguity in nonlinear covariance steering problems. A stochastic spacecraft guidance example is presented to demonstrate our contributions.
Predict-then-optimize systems usually compress uncertainty into a point forecast and then solve a downstream optimization problem as if the forecast were reliable. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers protection against misspecification, but the ambiguity set is often centered at historical samples and uses a fixed radius. We propose \emph{learned predictive ambiguity sets} (LPAS): a deep contextual model outputs a finite nominal scenario distribution, a state-dependent Wasserstein radius, and optionally an anisotropic ground metric. These outputs define a contextual ambiguity set that feeds a DRO decision layer. The radius is trained by a combination of conditional quantile calibration, size regularization, and downstream decision loss, so that robustness is adaptive rather than globally fixed. We derive the finite dual form used by the decision layer, present a staged training algorithm, and evaluate the method on distributionally robust portfolio optimization with 20 S&P 500 constituents from 2018--2026. The proposed method substantially improves over equal-weight, predict-then-optimize, and historical Wasserstein DRO baselines, achieving 26.28% annualized return, Sharpe ratio 1.30, final wealth 1.61, and lower tail loss than a deep fixed-radius DRO baseline while using a smaller average radius. The results show that learned ambiguity radii can recover most of the performance of strong fixed-radius DRO while reducing unnecessary conservatism and improving regime adaptivity.