Organizations: Center for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Technical University of Applied Sciences Wuerzburg-Schweinfurt, Franz-Horn-Strasse 2, Wuerzburg, Germany · Bielefeld University, Universitaetsstrasse 25, Bielefeld, Germany · green spin GmbH, Magdalene-Schoch-Strasse 5, Wuerzburg, Germany
Abstract
Remote sensing has become an increasingly valuable tool for agricultural monitoring, particularly through the use of publicly available satellite imagery. However, effectively integrating domain knowledge into machine learning methods remains challenging. This study presents a real-world example of early sugar beet harvest yield forecasting from purely optical Sentinel-2 imagery, demonstrating how a tight integration of domain knowledge and machine learning can lead to synergistic gains. We empirically find that using very small vision transformer patch sizes and all available Sentinel-2 spectral bands improves our model despite being uncommon design choices in the domain. As a practical contribution, we were able to identify a large fraction of low-yield fields in a different year early on in the growth cycle through a modified training setup and a ranking-based detection of underperforming fields.
Determining agricultural potential is fundamental to sustainable land management and agricultural planning. Remote sensing data is increasingly valuable as an avenue for agricultural potential due to the cost of traditional methods (surveys, in-situ measurements, soil testing, etc). ImageCLEF AI4Agri 2026: Subtask 1 is concerned with the prediction of viticulture potential in Southern France. The DS@GT ARC's submission for Subtask 1 introduces an ensemble of U-Net and a Geospatial Foundation Model (Prithvi-2.0). Our best model achieved a ±1 accuracy of 68.32 on the leaderboard, ranking 2nd among 7 teams. The implementation for this work is publicly available at https://github.com/dsgt-arc/imageclef-ai4agri-2026 .
Jorge Ignacio Perez, Hwaai Kang Kee, Lucas Rassbach
Sierra Leone's agriculture operates with almost no data-driven decision support, and no published machine learning study has examined the country's crop yields. We ask whether rice yield can be forecast from data Sierra Leone currently has. Using 25 years of FAOSTAT production data (2000-2024) for nine major crops, we train XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest under a strict anti-leakage protocol with expanding-window walk-forward evaluation across seven held-out years, benchmarked against naive persistence. No model trained on crop statistics alone outperforms persistence. Augmenting with free satellite climate data (CHIRPS rainfall, NASA POWER temperature) reverses this result: a climate-only XGBoost reduces forecast error by one third (RMSE 284 vs 428 kg/ha), a gain that holds for a linear model and is robust to excluding the anomalous 2018 season. Early-season (May-June) rainfall is the dominant predictor, implying seasonal yield risk is observable months before harvest. No model anticipated the 2018 collapse, whose origins were institutional rather than climatic. We translate the findings into policy recommendations for Sierra Leone's Feed Salone Strategy, with a fully open-source pipeline.
Agricultural monitoring faces unique challenges, arising from the landscape's complex temporal, phenological, and climate dynamics, yet monitoring them is critical for ensuring food security. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites offer all-weather day-night imaging capability supporting key monitoring tasks including crop type mapping, yield prediction and phenological event detection. Existing multimodal remote sensing foundation models including TerraMind and CopernicusFM learn SAR representations by grounding them in optical imagery using joint encoding and contrastive learning techniques, while SAR-specific foundation models such as SAR-JEPA, SARMAE, and SAR-W-MixMAE primarily focus on target detection, flood mapping, and land cover classification applications. Recent work has introduced phenology inspired temporal pretext tasks with optical imagery which has shown strong performance on agricultural downstream tasks. In this work, we propose the first self-supervised learning pipeline focused on using only SAR intensity imagery for agricultural applications. We improve the temporal pretext tasks through masking and curriculum learning to enhance the pretraining pipeline's ability to capture phenological features from SAR. On the SICKLE benchmark, our final model achieves 84.9% IoU on crop type mapping, outperforming optical baselines (by 15.3 pt) and existing SAR baselines (by 2.2 pt), demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed pipeline for pretraining SAR intensity encoders for agricultural monitoring.