Incomplete Observations Boost Evolutionary Performance in Ocean Modeling

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting is societally critical, supporting decision-making in sectors ranging from water and agricultural management to disaster risk reduction, energy planning, and insurance. Achieving reliable predictions at these timescales requires representing the ocean and its dynamics, but traditional physics-based Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), are computationally expensive and difficult to develop and improve because of the code complexity. In this work, we propose Neptune, an end-to-end data-driven framework for global ocean and sea-ice components emulation tailored for S2S timescales, up to 60 days. Neptune combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNOs) to effectively capture local features and global cross-scale interactions, thereby obtaining a coherent representation of the ocean state. Forced by prescribed daily atmospheric fields, Neptune emulates ocean state variables, from temperature and salinity, to zonal and meridional currents, from sea surface height to sea ice thickness and concentration, with daily outputs at the ocean surface and through the water column. Specifically, we propose two variants of Neptune, Neptune-1 and Neptune-025, capable of emulating the ocean state at 1° and 0.25° resolution, respectively. Evaluated against a suite of metrics, including statistics (RMSE, CRPS and ACC), physical coherency (Ocean Heat Content, Eddy Kinetic Energy and Ice Brier Score) and climate indices (ENSO and Z20 metric, IOD), Neptune successfully reproduces the spatio-temporal evolution of the oceanic fields up to 60 days, and is stable over long timescales. Neptune provides compelling evidence that end-to-end data-driven ocean emulators can become a powerful component of next-generation S2S forecasting systems, emulating ocean state at high spatio-temporal resolution.

Learning physical dynamics directly from incomplete observations is challenging because authentic occlusions are structured, sample-dependent, and often missing not at random, whereas existing methods typically rely on heuristic masking rules or predefined mask distributions. We propose Observation-Aligned Mask Priors, a framework that learns the distribution of authentic observation masks and uses it to construct context-query partitions for training from incomplete data. Specifically, we pretrain a Bayesian Flow Network (BFN) on binary observation masks to capture real occlusion topologies, then guide BFN sampling with a globally normalized cross-entropy objective to generate sample-specific masks aligned with each sparse observation. The intersection between the guided mask and the observed mask defines the context, and the remaining observed entries become query targets for a diffusion-based reconstruction model. We show that this intersection-based partitioning gives every valid observed dimension a strictly positive probability of being queried, preventing zero-query dead zones and local generative collapse. Experiments on three real-world oceanographic datasets with authentic satellite occlusions, across resolutions up to 256$\times$256, show consistent improvements over strong diffusion baselines in MSE and PSNR. These results demonstrate that learning mask priors from authentic occlusions is an effective alternative to heuristic masking for learning from incomplete physical observations without access to fully observed fields.

Despite the unprecedented volume of multimodal data provided by modern Earth observation systems, our ability to model atmospheric dynamics remains constrained. Traditional modeling frameworks force heterogeneous measurements into predefined spatial grids, inherently limiting the full exploitation of raw sensor data and creating severe computational bottlenecks. Here we present Earth-o1, an observation-native atmospheric world model that overcomes these structural limitations. Rather than relying on conventional atmospheric dynamical modeling systems or traditional data assimilation, Earth-o1 directly learns the continuous, three-dimensional physical evolution of the Earth system from ungridded observational data. By integrating diverse sensor inputs into a unified, grid-free dynamical field, the model autonomously advances the atmospheric state in space and time. We show that this fundamentally distinct paradigm enables direct, real-time forecasting and cross-sensor inference without the overhead of explicit numerical solvers. In hindcast evaluations, Earth-o1 achieves surface forecast skill comparable to the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). These results establish that continuous, observation-driven world models -- a new class of fully observation-native geophysical simulators -- can match the fidelity of established physical frameworks, providing a scalable data-driven foundation for a digital twin of the Earth.