Test-Time Scaling via Error Localization

Large language models can solve harder reasoning problems with more inference-time compute. The term "test-time scaling," however, covers several inference algorithms: extending deliberation along one trajectory, sampling completed candidates and aggregating them by voting or verification, and searching over partial states. These algorithms differ in statistical structure, compute requirements, and failure modes. Treating them as interchangeable under a scalar "budget," or reporting accuracy without specifying the inference protocol, makes results difficult to compare across studies. We study test-time scaling along three axes. First, we formalize it as budgeted inference over the implicit prefix tree of an autoregressive model and distinguish single-trajectory sequential scaling, leaf-level scaling with terminal reduction, and prefix-level scaling. Second, we treat the full inference system as the evaluated object and separate end-to-end performance from candidate-bank diagnostics. We introduce an evaluation profile whose coordinates and simple functionals recover or bound common repeated-sampling metrics, and require compute accounting and uncertainty estimates that match the protocol. Third, we distinguish exact replay from distributional reproducibility and state the requirements for each. We also organize open-weight reasoning models by model-side and interface mechanisms. Our empirical study covers broad knowledge, symbolic reasoning, and competition mathematics, and we publicly release 1,403,520 sampled model attempts. The project website is available at https://mohsenhariri.github.io/scorio/tts. The released datasets are Trace (https://huggingface.co/datasets/harimo/scorio-trace), Lite (https://huggingface.co/datasets/harimo/scorio-lite), Math (https://huggingface.co/buckets/harimo/scorio-math), and SuperGPQA (https://huggingface.co/buckets/harimo/scorio-gpqa).

Test-time scaling improves the reasoning performance of large language models but often results in token-inefficient overthinking, where models continue reasoning beyond what is necessary for a correct answer. Existing dynamic early-exit methods typically rely on single-step confidence signals, which are often unreliable for detecting reasoning convergence in multi-step settings. To mitigate this limitation, we propose TRACE, a training-free framework for efficient test-time scaling that determines when to terminate reasoning based on temporal aggregation of multi-step evidence rather than instantaneous signals. TRACE detects reasoning convergence over time by aggregating two complementary signals across recent reasoning steps: answer consistency, capturing the persistence of predicted answers, and confidence trajectory, modeling the temporal evolution of model confidence. Benefiting from these two factors, TRACE can accurately determine whether the reasoning process has converged, thereby promptly halting inference and effectively avoiding redundant reasoning steps. Extensive experiments on multiple challenging benchmarks show that TRACE reduces reasoning token usage by 25-30% on average while maintaining accuracy within 1-2% of full-length reasoning, consistently outperforming existing dynamic reasoning methods.

Test-time scaling improves language model reasoning by spending additional compute to explore multiple solution trajectories. The key challenge is to maximize accuracy while minimizing the total number of generated tokens during reasoning. Recent PRM-guided methods score intermediate prefixes to steer this search, but most are frontier-only: they keep only the current active prefixes and irreversibly prune or resample away the rest using noisy PRM scores. This can cause premature commitment, diversity collapse, and the loss of prefixes that still admit correct continuations. We introduce stochastic backtracking over a persistent pool of historical prefixes, allowing test-time compute to revisit previously generated states instead of only expanding the current frontier. To make this efficient, we propose two complementary mechanisms. Subpool Selection strengthens greedy PRM-guided search by applying Top-N selection within random subpools, giving historical prefixes a chance to bypass over-scored frontier candidates. Power Backtrack Sequential Monte Carlo extends SMC-style resampling to the persistent pool using powered PRM scores and mixture-corrected weights. Across mathematical reasoning benchmarks and model scales, our methods consistently achieve higher accuracy per token count, and the same level of accuracy using only a fraction of the token count in comparison to strong PRM-guided baselines, demonstrating that persistent-pool stochastic backtracking provides a simple and effective way to improve the accuracy-token trade-off in test-time scaling.