Organizations: Yunnan Key Laboratory of Statistical Modeling and Data Analysis, Yunnan University, Kunming, China · School of Statistics and Management, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China
As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed, reliable and efficient mechanisms for distinguishing AI-generated text from human-written content have become essential. Statistical watermarking has emerged as a promising solution, yet most existing methods are typically fixed-horizon procedures, precluding valid early stopping in streaming generation. In this paper, we develop an efficient online watermark detection framework with anytime-valid inference based on Rao-Blackwellized e-processes, enabling recursive token-level evidence updates without storing the full history. In particular, we instantiate the framework for the Gumbel-max watermark and reduce the original token-level dependence testing problem to a pivot-induced sequential testing problem with an explicit null distribution. Theoretically, we prove anytime-valid Type I error control under arbitrary optional stopping and establish positive asymptotic log-growth under watermarking, implying consistency of the proposed stopping rules. Simulations and experiments on real LLM-generated text demonstrate efficient online detection with rigorous anytime-valid guarantees.
Watermarking embeds statistical signatures in AI-generated text for detection and attribution. We reveal a fundamental vulnerability: when users access multiple models (today's reality), watermarks trivially fail. Watermarks perturb output distributions away from the original, and in competitive markets, these perturbations are typically independent across providers. We theoretically prove that averaging output probability distributions recovers the unwatermarked distribution with up to a second-order error term. Empirically, simply averaging 3-5 models cancels out these perturbations. We introduce WASH (Watermark Attenuation via Statistical Hybridisation), which solves practical challenges in ensemble generation: vocabulary misalignment and tokenisation differences across heterogeneous models. Experiments across six watermarking schemes and three LLMs show that averaging across 3 models suppresses detection z-scores from 5-300 to below 2 (below the detection threshold of 4) and reduces TPR at 5% FPR to below 50%, while improving quality by 27.5% and running 6 times faster than the best baseline on the long sequence generation. Our results suggest that robust AI-text detection via watermarking requires either accepting this fundamental vulnerability or unprecedented coordination among model providers.
Watermarking LLM-generated text is an important task for tracing its provenance. Existing LLM watermarks preserve provenance under editing, but this same robustness allows an adversary to alter critical content while retaining attribution, a vulnerability known as piggyback spoofing. We introduce an innovative watermark that jointly provides provenance and tamper evidence. It co-embeds a robust signal and a fragile signal into each generated token. The signals share the same mechanism but use independent keys and different seeding windows over normalized text, making one resilient to edits and the other sensitive to reader-visible changes. Multiple rounds of unbiased tournament reweighting preserve the expected generation distribution, while a periodic round-allocation pattern controls the trade-off between the two signals. At detection, their scores form a two-dimensional space supporting three decisions: Intact, Tampered, and No-Watermark. Across two large language models and two prompt datasets, our method demonstrates the highest tamper-detection rate among the evaluated methods while maintaining competitive attribution robustness and perplexity. Ablation studies show that reliable three-state detection requires a well-defined notion of intactness, co-embedding of the two signals, and complementary sensitivity to edits.
We introduce Stateless Bernoulli Watermarking (SBW), a new statistical watermark for Large Language Models that determines green list membership through independent per-token Bernoulli trials. Unlike KGW's vocabulary permutation or SynthID's multi-layer tournament, SBW requires only a single comparison per token against a counter-based random number generator, reducing membership complexity to O(1) and enabling single-kernel execution with zero intermediate allocations. We prove that this formulation preserves the same detection guarantees as fixed-size green lists: the z-score test remains N(0,1) under the null. The stateless architecture enables capabilities unavailable to existing methods: full-vocabulary self-salt watermarking (over 6000× faster than KGW's self-salt and 2× faster than SynthID despite biasing the entire vocabulary with candidate-dependent seeding) and architectural compatibility with distributed inference. In end-to-end generation benchmarks, SBW adds less than 1% overhead at all batch sizes. We additionally identify hash function design as a previously unexplored axis for watermark quality, showing that a GPU-native Jenkins hash improves null calibration by 1.8× while producing more diverse text. Experiments across two seeding schemes and eight (γ,δ) configurations confirm statistical equivalence with ROC-AUC differences below 0.01.