Cost-Aware Recovery-Pathway Identification and Bayesian Optimization for Autonomous Materials Discovery
Authors: Debajyoti Ray, Niranjan Srinivas
Organizations: Coactive Science
Abstract
Autonomous laboratories automate experimental execution, but a campaign must also decide which recovery pathway merits optimization. We formulate this as a sequential decision problem with a discrete pathway-identification stage and a continuous within-pathway optimization stage under heterogeneous experimental costs. Our implementation, Coactive learning, combines a cost-sensitive Bayesian hypothesis-discrimination policy motivated by EC2 (Golovin et al., 2010) with Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization (Srinivas et al., 2010). Under explicitly stated assumptions, the expected spend of one fixed-budget campaign attempt is bounded by the expected pathway-identification cost plus the capped within-pathway optimization budget. We evaluate the method on synthetic benchmarks constrained by selected results reported for PNNL's CICERO selective-precipitation study (Ritchhart et al., 2026). The method performs comparably to an oracle-pathway Bayesian-optimization reference and to a strong split-plate baseline that discriminates pathways with its first plate, without receiving an oracle label for the correct pathway. It is given a candidate hypothesis space and a diagnostic likelihood model. On an NdFeB-inspired instance, it avoids the simulated penalty of a commit-first baseline that initially selects a plausible but inferior hydroxide pathway. This hypothetical wrong-first-commitment scenario is motivated by the hydroxide-oxalate performance contrast reported by CICERO. We characterize the sensitivity of these conclusions to the assumed cost model. The code and benchmark are open source.
Advanced materials discovery increasingly relies on machine learning and Bayesian optimization to explore large discrete design spaces under limited evaluation budgets. However, conventional Bayesian optimization (BO) can become inefficient as candidate spaces grow, often evaluating low-value regions before reaching informative areas. We propose an active-learning (AL)-guided adaptive search-space refinement framework combined with multi-objective BO to accelerate materials optimization while preserving Pareto-relevant regions. We evaluate the approach on CH4/N2 separation in covalent-organic frameworks and pressure-vessel design with material-direction stress components and thickness objectives. Results show that the AL-guided refinement reduces the candidate space by approximately half while preserving more than 99 percent of the original hypervolume. The reduced-space strategy improves early convergence and cumulative Pareto-front discovery from the BO, demonstrating efficient large-scale materials optimization across constrained autonomous materials discovery settings.
Alexandros Ntagiantas, Panagiotis Tsilimidos, George Giannakopoulos +2
Choosing a recovery process for scale-up requires connecting laboratory results with product requirements, process costs, and scale effects. We analyze records from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Computer Intelligence for Critical Element Recovery and Optimization (CICERO) workflow for autonomous selective precipitation. Active learning uses prior results to choose experiments. In a conditional retrospective benchmark with fitted models and recycled neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnet records, active learning finds the best recorded result with fewer experiments than nonadaptive space filling. Enrichment is the selected rare-earth-to-iron ratio relative to that in the feed. Adaptive policies reach the recorded enrichment maximum by 16 to 24 wells (individual experiments), versus 48. Our two-stage reconstruction ties two adaptive alternatives at 16 wells. Conditional analyses of recycled samarium-cobalt (SmCo) magnets show a Round 2 tradeoff between purity and nominal yield, the recovery fraction calculated from an assumed starting amount - NdFeB Round 1 routes differ in enrichment. Rankings for produced water from oil and gas extraction depend on phase and dilution assumptions requiring confirmation. We propose choosing batches by their expected reduction in downstream Bayes risk: the minimum expected loss among available process decisions under current beliefs. In exploratory simulations, a hybrid that filters candidates has lower estimated loss than the implemented joint search across routes and conditions. Differences involving the synthetic two-stage policy are small relative to estimation uncertainty. We outline a pre-registered prospective test under a shared loss and logging standard, requiring clarified measurements and records, a defined process decision and relevant outputs, credible economic inputs, and validation at the intended scale.
Self-driving laboratories (SDLs) combine automated experimentation with adaptive decision-making to accelerate scientific discovery. Their operation nevertheless often depends on human specialists who translate scientific objectives into executable closed-loop campaigns. Specialists adjust them as data and operating conditions change. Here, we present La Agente 'Optima, an agentic framework that constructs and supervises Bayesian optimization campaigns across computational and experimental systems while maintaining a persistent optimization state. By separating large language model (LLM) reasoning from executed campaigns, 'Optima runs repetitive optimization loops consistently, returns control to the agent only when progress requires interpretation or campaign revision, and keeps every decision auditable. We evaluate 'Optima across ablation studies, five digital discovery tasks, and two physical platforms. Throughout, 'Optima maintained executable campaigns as both the scientific problem and execution environment evolved. In a closed-loop contact angle optimization campaign, 'Optima identified and corrected a mid-run measurement failure, bringing the contact angle from 71.4 to 67.8 degrees, just above the 64-66 degree range. From this result, 'Optima correctly inferred that the target was likely unattainable with the available reagents and recommended changing the formulation. In a five-day multi-objective flow-chemistry campaign, 'Optima increased the yield from 30% to 59% over 23 experiments. Despite substantial inference costs, it cost less and used substantially less starting material than a human-directed campaign, while selecting a more mass-efficient operating point. These results show that LLM-based agents can make rigorous, long-running optimization campaigns accessible to domain scientists without specialist setup, expanding the scope of SDLs.