No Data Is Not No Risk: Visibility Aware Graph-Based Inference of Business Conduct Risk

Financial and economic research often relies on structured supply-chain disclosures and commercial databases. In China, supplier--customer disclosure is typically limited to major partners of listed firms, leaving unlisted firms and long-tail inter-firm links poorly captured in structured data. Public web evidence can partly complement this gap through corporate, government, and trade-media disclosures; however, full-text web mining at scale is costly because pages are often inaccessible or expensive to process with large language models (LLMs). We propose a snippet-driven method for constructing a supply chain knowledge graph (SCKG), with firms as nodes and inter-firm relationships as edges. Web search snippets are query-biased summaries returned with search results. We use them as a scalable first-pass evidence layer for LLM-based relationship extraction. We evaluate the pipeline in terms of extraction efficiency and coverage. For extraction efficiency, exhaustive full-text chunking discovers 19.8$\times$ more unique relationships than snippets, but requires 251.2$\times$ more input tokens and yields higher redundancy. For coverage, we use 130,685 Chinese firms as search seeds, covering Shanghai/Shenzhen-listed firms and large unlisted firms as of 2024. In the listed-firm subset, the resulting SCKG covers 7.2$\times$ more firms and 9.3$\times$ more relationships than the CSMAR disclosure-based benchmark, while revealing heavy-tailed degree patterns. Retained provenance metadata make the SCKG an auditable complement to disclosure-based databases.

Financial markets evolve in response to real-world events reported in news, yet these drivers often remain implicit in text. To better explain market dynamics, event-market relations must be explicitly modeled through factual, company-centric, and environment-aware knowledge graphs. We present FinKG-News, a framework that automatically constructs such graphs by extracting news events as anchors linked to companies. Using FinKG-News as grounded evidence that integrates events, news, and company data, we develop an in-context learning architecture for credit risk report generation across three core financial dimensions. Automatic and human evaluations show that automated hallucination detection and quality assessment remain unreliable, making expert judgment indispensable. Our approach consistently outperforms baselines, improving quality by 19%-34% while reducing hallucinations. The source code and project resources are publicly available at: https://github.com/ichise-laboratory/FINKG-news.

Relational fraud detection can exploit both label-free graph context and label-derived neighborhood evidence, but these two information sources obey different validity conditions. In particular, neighborhood risk becomes invalid when a queried node's own label, or any validation or test label, enters its construction. We formulate this issue as provenance-constrained relational evidence use and present PREF-Gate, an auditable decision framework with two fixed experts and a finite validation gate. The context expert uses attributes, one-hop means, feature residuals, and degree descriptors without labels. The evidence expert adds self-excluded, training-label-only neighborhood risk and empirical-Bayes summaries that expose support, uncertainty, availability, and shrinkage. Before test inference, the gate selects either expert or one of three pre-specified probability mixtures and fixes the decision threshold. On Amazon, YelpChi, and TFinance, using five identical stratified splits and 14 same-protocol methods, PREF-Gate obtains mean AUPRC values of 0.9085, 0.8104, and 0.8913. It selects the label-free expert on all Amazon and YelpChi splits and an evidence mixture on all TFinance splits. Thus, the main result is conditional rather than universal: label-derived relational evidence is useful only where held-out validation supports it. The framework couples competitive ranking performance with an explicit label-provenance contract, finite selection policy, failure accounting, and review-budget evaluation, providing an auditable knowledge-based decision pipeline for graph fraud detection.