Meteosat Third Generation imagery improves CNN-based SSI retrieval

Short-term photovoltaic (PV) power and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts are essential for effective dispatch, reserve scheduling, and grid operations. At these forecasting horizons, errors are predominantly driven by cloud induced ramps: relying solely on historical numerical data may struggle to anticipate an incoming cloud, making ground-based sky images a crucial complementary physical signal. Furthermore, forecast performance is highly sensitive to location and local observing conditions, creating a strong need for site-specific data that are often scarce. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated competitive performance and high data efficiency in time-series forecasting. Despite their success, existing LLM-based forecasting methods remain predominantly unimodal, relying primarily on historical numerical time-series data. Effectively incorporating sky imagery into an LLM-based forecasting framework remains under-explored and an open challenge. In this paper, we propose SolCloudLLM, an LLM-based multimodal forecasting framework. SolCloudLLM aligns sky-image patches with time-series patches and fuses their corresponding representations through bidirectional multimodal fusion, yielding a unified representation that is subsequently mapped into the embedding space of an LLM. Extensive experiments on the SIRTA and SKIPP'D datasets demonstrate that SolCloudLLM consistently outperforms the best baseline methods in MSE across all forecasting horizons, achieving a maximum relative MSE reduction of 25.4%. Stratified analysis further indicates that the benefits of multimodal fusion are concentrated primarily under cloudy conditions. Notably, SolCloudLLM achieves the best performance in nearly all few-shot settings, whereas other deep learning baselines experience substantial performance degradation and are frequently outperformed by the non-learning physical method.

Field-scale retrieval of surface soil moisture (SM), leaf area index (LAI), and plant height (PH) is essential for precision agriculture, yet it remains an ill-posed inverse problem. Concurrent variations in soil moisture and canopy density generate substantial ambiguities in radar backscatter and spectral responses, which reduces the effectiveness of traditional feedforward regression models in heterogeneous smallholder cropping systems. This study presents the Iterative Energy-Based Transformer (iEBT) for the joint retrieval of coupled soil-canopy states from Sentinel-1 C-band SAR and Sentinel-2 multispectral time series. Instead of direct regression, iEBT embeds multi-modal predictors within a shared sequence, produces an initial state estimate, and iteratively updates the target [SM, LAI, PH] vector through normalized gradient descent to minimize a learned scalar compatibility energy function. Using 700 quality-controlled field measurements from Varanasi, India, iEBT achieved the highest learned-model performance on the random test split, with a four-seed mean R^2 of 0.854 \pm 0.012 (R_SM^2 = 0.841, R_LAI^2 = 0.905, R_PH^2 = 0.821). WCM and PROSAIL were retained as physically interpretable SAR and optical reference models for comparison. Modality ablations confirmed that Sentinel-1 drives SM retrieval, while Sentinel-2 dominates LAI, whereas PH relies on combined structural-phenological signatures. Crucially, the model's terminal energy functions as an uncalibrated post-retrieval quality diagnostic; screening the 10% highest-energy samples markedly reduced target level root-mean-square errors. While leave-one-campaign-out validation highlights persistent cross-season domain shift challenges due to localized management variations, compatibility-guided multimodal fusion offers a structured self-diagnostic path toward reliable biophysical parameter estimation

Solar panels are increasingly deployed in cities on rooftops, walls, and urban infrastructure. Although the panel costs have fallen in recent years, the soft costs of installing them have not. These soft costs include assessing the illumination (irradiance) of a panel, which is typically performed using a 3D model that fails to capture small nearby structures that impact the irradiance. Our approach uses a single image taken at the panel's location to forecast its irradiance at any time in the future. We use visual cues in the image to find the camera's orientation and the portion of the sky visible to the panel in order to forecast the irradiance due to the sun and the sky. In addition, we show that the irradiance due to reflections from nearby buildings varies smoothly over time and can be forecasted from the image. This approach enables assessing the solar energy potential of any surface and forecasting the temporal variation of a panel's irradiance. We validate our approach using real irradiance measurements in urban canyons. We show that our approach often yields more accurate irradiance forecasts compared to conventional irradiance-based transposition methods and 3D model-based simulations. We also show that a single spherical image can be used to find the best fixed orientation of a panel. Finally, we present Solaris, a device to capture the image seen by a panel in a variety of urban settings.