When Derived Measurements Mislead: Quantifying and Mitigating LLM Over-Trust with Privileged-Modality Reliability Evidence
Authors: Zongheng Guo, Tao Chen, Tianli Li, Mingzhe Cui, Yang Jiao, Lei Xie, Yi Pan, Xiao Hu, +1 more
Organizations: Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy · State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · Department of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Cardiology, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China · Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen, China · Nell Hodgson Woodruff School of Nursing, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
Derived measurements increasingly enter large language model (LLM) pipelines as direct facts despite their instance-dependent validity. We define derived-feature over-trust (DFOT) as the failure in which a downstream LLM assigns such a measurement the epistemic status of a direct fact or uses it outside its valid scope. Using physiological sensing as a case study, D1 tests acceptance of a PPG-derived rhythm contradicted by offline ECG, whereas D2 tests rejection of an offline-confirmed reliable PPG rhythm under misleading severe history. ECG supplies training supervision and offline reference construction but is never shown to the LLM. Five estimands quantify this chain: conflict over-trust rate (COTR) and context-induced error rate (CIR) characterize D1/D2; correct repair rate (CRR) measures frozen-error repair; evidence-specific repair margin (ESRM) contrasts matched and patient-disjoint shuffled evidence; and utility harm rate (UHR) measures unnecessary verification among HIGH-reliability cases used without verification at baseline. The framework does not depend on a particular reliability generator. We demonstrate it on 50,000 paired PPG-ECG records using ECG-to-PPG privileged distillation as an illustrative baseline and PPG-only inference. On a protocol-locked 187-patient test, the baseline improves four repair and specificity endpoints by 1.82-6.69 percentage points, with all paired confidence intervals excluding zero; UHR increases by 0.67 percentage points (95% CI: -0.4 to +1.7). DFOT provides a common evaluation target for stronger mitigation methods. The code is available at https://github.com/Zongheng-Guo/When-Derived-Measurements-Mislead.
Multimodal large language models (LLMs) can combine topology, measurements, and incident text for grid diagnosis, yet answer accuracy does not establish that task-appropriate evidence was used. This letter proposes a general framework in order to conduct task-conditional faithfulness audit. It compares self-reported reliance, intervention-derived behavioral reliance, and preregistered engineering importance. The framework first registers task-specific evidence requirements and compares them with self-reported reliance and behavioral changes under controlled modality ablations. To resolve detected discrepancies, we design an evidence-gated correction and re-audit mechanism that regenerates failed responses under evidence constraints and independently re-ablates them to verify improved grounding without performance loss. Case studies evaluate three differently scaled LLMs on IEEE 39- and 118-bus scenarios. These results validate the framework ability to detect, diagnose, and correct task-conditional faithfulness failures.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in social science as scalable measurement tools for converting unstructured text into variables that can enter standard empirical designs. Measurement validity demands more than high average accuracy, which requires well calibrated confidence that faithfully reflects the empirical probability of each measurement being correct. This paper studies the model miscalibration in LLM-based social science measurement. We begin with a case study on FOMC and show that confidence based filtering can change downstream regression estimates when LLM confidence is miscalibrated. We then audit calibration across 14 social science constructs covering both proprietary models, including GPT-5-mini, DeepSeek-V3.2, and open source models. Across tasks and model families, reported confidence is poorly aligned with tolerance-based correctness. As a simple mitigation, we propose a soft label distillation pipeline for calibrating Bert with LLM. The method converts an LLM score and its verbalized confidence into a soft target distribution, then trains a smaller discriminative classifier on encoder models for these targets. Averaged across datasets, this approach reduces ECE by 43.2% and Brier by 34.0%. These results suggest that LLM-based social science pipelines should treat calibration as part of measurement validity, rather than as an optional post-processing concern.
This discussion argues that sequential statistical inference can naturally contribute to LLM trustworthiness. In deployment, LLM systems are queried repeatedly, conditioned on evolving contexts, and incorporate user or tool feedback, and may exhibit behavioral shifts after model updates or distribution changes. The discussion is organized around three tasks: representation, modeling LLM interactions as dependent stochastic processes rather than isolated prompt--response pairs; validity, developing uncertainty guarantees that remain meaningful under dependence, repeated use, and adaptation; and monitoring, using sequential alarms and change-point detection to identify shifts in calibration, hallucination rates, refusal behavior, fairness, or other task-relevant properties. This perspective complements recent surveys by viewing trustworthy LLM deployment as a problem of statistical process control.