High-Stakes Decisions with Language Models: Insights from Emergency Triage
Authors: Khurram Yamin, Christopher Kelly, Bryan Wilder, Eric Horvitz
Abstract
High-stakes decisions under uncertainty, such as medical emergency triage, require more than accurate predictions. They depend on estimating the likelihood of alternative outcomes while explicitly weighing the consequences of different actions, principles that have long formed the foundation of medical diagnosis and decision making. Yet language models are increasingly used for high-stakes clinical recommendations without explicit specification of the utilities governing these decisions. Here we show that emergency triage with language models can be understood within a probabilistic decision framework, providing a case study of a broader decision-analytic paradigm for steering, evaluating, and deploying language models in high-stakes settings. Using clinical vignettes from a structured evaluation of a consumer triage system, we analyze recommendations for treatment under alternative utility functions that specify the relative costs of missed emergencies and unnecessary escalation. We find that capable language models adjust recommendations in response to stated utilities, revealing that the same underlying predictions can support markedly different decision policies. These findings show that effective deployment depends not only on improving predictions but also on making decision objectives explicit. More broadly, they suggest that language models for high-stakes applications should be understood and evaluated as probabilistic decision systems whose recommendations depend jointly on predictive performance and explicit utilities.
We investigate whether large language models produce different medical triage recommendations for identical symptoms based solely on the language of the patient prompt. Using Gemini 3.5 Flash, we evaluate a neurological symptom profile (persistent headache, blurred vision, nausea) across six languages (English, Spanish, Chinese, Hindi, Japanese, Arabic) with 30 runs per condition (n=450 total API calls). We find that the model recommends emergency room visits at rates ranging from 0% (Japanese, Hindi) to 30% (English, Arabic), despite assigning nearly identical severity scores (7.7-8.0/10) across all languages. Adding a single sentence specifying the patient's US location increases ER recommendations by up to 76.7 percentage points for non-English prompts, while the reverse anchor (English prompt with a Tokyo location) reduces the ER rate from 30% to 6.7%. A back-translation control (Japanese to English) produces ER rates comparable to the English baseline, confirming that the disparity is not caused by translation quality but by implicit geographic inference from the input language. We release the complete dataset, experiment code, and results.
At Noora Health, our nurses answer more than 50,000 medical queries per month on our WhatsApp-based service that provides caregivers with on-demand support. Their most time-critical task is emergency triage: deciding which queries need immediate in-person attention. To support them, we built a system that uses a large language model (LLM) to classify whether a message is an emergency and provide a rationale for interpretability. But the system was opaque: analyzing mistakes meant reading reasoning chains for each message, which is infeasible at our scale. Prompt changes meant re-running a full evaluation to prevent regressions, which was both costly and operationally challenging. Clinicians follow a decision tree to make this call, but it was never documented or passed to the model, which relied on a flat list of danger signs. To address these issues, we decomposed triage into two steps: an LLM extracts canonical symptoms and patient context from the query using a clinician-authored vocabulary, and a deterministic rule engine captures the scenarios that indicate an emergency. We show that the new system raised recall from 0.565 to 0.810 and F1 from 0.606 to 0.702, with structured rules driving most of the accuracy gains while the decomposition provides auditability: clinical experts can inspect each stage of the new system to see whether the query was mistranslated, symptoms were incorrectly extracted, patient context was wrongly inferred, or the necessary rules were missing. They can add new rules independently without causing regressions and avoid running costly evaluations. Since deployment, the new system has triaged 152,421 patient queries and flagged 28,535 (18.7%) as emergencies. The over-escalation rate has been 17.8%, without any increase in missed emergencies. Clinicians have also added 48 new rules since deployment, evidence of the faster correction loop we set out to build.
Shobhit Jagga, Aman Dalmia, Niharika Priyadarshini +7
Accurate and consistent Emergency Severity Index (ESI) assignment remains a persistent challenge in emergency departments, where highly variable free-text triage documentation contributes to mistriage and workflow inefficiencies. This study evaluates whether open-source small language models (SLMs) can serve as reliable, privacy-preserving decision-support tools for clinical triage. We systematically compared multiple SLMs across diverse prompting pipelines and found that clinical vignettes, concise summaries of triage narratives, yielded the most accurate predictions. The SLM, Qwen2.5-7B, demonstrated the strongest balance of accuracy, stability, and computational efficiency. Through large-scale domain adaptation using expert-curated and silver-standard pediatric triage data, fine-tuned Qwen2.5-7B models substantially reduced discordance and clinically significant errors, outperforming all baseline SLMs and advanced proprietary large language models (LLMs, e.g., GPT-4o). These findings highlight the feasibility of institution-specific SLMs for reliable, privacy-preserving ESI decision support and underscore the importance of targeted fine-tuning over more complex inference strategies.