When Oracle Conditioning Misleads Deployment: Conditioning-Availability Bias in Echocardiographic Segmentation

Reliable clinical deployment of machine learning requires models that know when they are likely to fail, particularly for subgroups underrepresented in training data. A common case is pediatric care, where models trained on adult cohorts can silently under-perform on children with no indication that something has gone wrong. As retraining with labeled pediatric data is often infeasible, detecting such failures at inference time is a critical clinical need. Building on the VIDS (Variational Inference under Distribution Shifts) framework, we introduce VIDS-Seg, which applies amortized variational inference over a lightweight prediction head to make this adaptive, OOD-aware prior tractable for dense image segmentation. We evaluate VIDS-Seg on left ventricular segmentation in echocardiography, a setting where pediatric anatomy differs systematically from the adult population most segmentation models are trained on, training on an adult cohort (EchoNet-Dynamic) and evaluating zero-shot on a pediatric cohort (EchoNet-Pediatric). Across all age strata, VIDS-Seg matches competitive baselines in segmentation accuracy while producing substantially higher spatial correspondence between predicted uncertainty and segmentation error, an advantage that persists even after applying temperature scaling to all baselines. Downstream, it yields more accurate and stable ejection fraction estimates and more reliable detection of cardiac malfunction in the infant subgroup. Our results indicate that OOD-aware uncertainty quantification can serve as a practical safety layer for deployed segmentation models, enabling detection of silent failures in underrepresented subgroups without retraining or additional labeled data.

Accurate estimation of left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) from echocardiography is central to cardiovascular care, and deep learning enables automated EF prediction from echocardiographic video. Because EF is clinically derived from left-ventricular (LV) volumes, a widely held intuition is that explicit LV segmentation should improve prediction. We introduce a quantitative criterion, the segmentation ceiling, that makes this testable: from EF as a normalized difference of end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, we derive in closed form how per-frame segmentation area error propagates into EF error, and thus the accuracy a mask must reach before it can improve on direct regression. Using EchoNet-Dynamic, a UniFormer-S backbone, and the empirically measured within-patient error correlation, the criterion places the break-even near 10% per-frame area error, whereas a representative segmenter operates at roughly 14%, above the ceiling. Consistent with this, four strategies for injecting segmentation or area information (a predicted-mask channel, end-diastolic/end-systolic clip sampling, and per-bin and amplitude area-consistency objectives) fail to beat a raw-video baseline; ground-truth masks help only through label leakage. Input representation thus not being the limit, we identify generalization as the practical lever: weight averaging with strong augmentation attains a test R^2 of 0.806 (MAE 4.08) under a matched dense-clip protocol, comparable to an R(2+1)D baseline (0.811) while tightening the validation-to-test gap. Finally, a heteroscedastic beta-NLL formulation yields informative, well-calibrated per-prediction uncertainty, larger for clinically harder low-EF cases, where Monte-Carlo dropout does not. The segmentation ceiling gives a concrete design criterion for when mask-guided EF estimation is worthwhile, plus a simple, uncertainty-aware recipe for EF regression.

Accurate identification of end-diastole (ED) and end-systole (ES) in echocardiography underpins the quantification of ventricular function, yet manual selection of these key frames is subjective and introduces clinically significant inter-operator variability. Recent self-supervised methods either prescribe strict periodic trajectories or learn an unconstrained low-dimensional motion subspace from reconstruction or registration objectives. The former offers interpretability but imposes restrictive assumptions on temporal progression, whereas the latter leaves cardiac phase implicit and ED/ES must be recovered through post-hoc geometric processing of the learned trajectory. We translate the physiological observation that cardiac phase is a one-dimensional signal into a prior by constraining the latent motion component to a single-parameter latent orbit, i.e., a global linear trajectory in latent space indexed by a bounded scalar phase variable. Mapping this variable through a sinusoidal nonlinearity yields an oscillatory motion signal with consistent temporal ordering, enabling direct identification of ED and ES from the learned phase signal. This inductive bias allows the model to capture an interpretable representation of the cardiac cycle, while maintaining flexibility to capture irregular heartbeats. Trained on EchoNet-Dynamic without annotations, our minimal single-parameter cardiac phase model learns an effective latent orbit, significantly improves upon the previous state of the art in ED localisation and matches it in ES localisation while using a more constrained representation and fewer training epochs. This demonstrates that a principled physiological inductive bias can match or exceed the performance of more complex representations. Code is available at: https://github.com/BonniciJ/OrbitalEcho/