Predict, Then Retrieve: Cross-Instance Future-State Retrieval from Video Prefixes

Acting in a physical scene requires knowing its real later state, not a plausible one. Current evaluations often accept words or a realistic-looking image, so the predicted state is never checked against the true one. We introduce DynaPix (Dynamic Pixels), a benchmark that makes prediction checkable. Given a video clip that stops before a key event and a question about a later moment, a model must pick the true future image from close candidates or a large gallery. The scenes come from a physics simulator, so the correct image and its time are known exactly and the wrong options are deliberately similar. Models often succeed when a visible event marks the target moment, but are near chance when only elapsed time marks it. Gallery search is harder still, as the true image rarely ranks first. People handle the elapsed-time items well, so the difficulty lies with the models, not the questions. Training on scene accounts drawn from the simulator's true record, not a teacher's guess, repairs much of this but not the longer elapsed time case. DynaPix thus exposes a temporal-anchoring gap: models attach a prediction to an event far better than to time itself.

Video event prediction (VEP) requires models to infer unobserved future states from partial video evidence. Existing video MLLMs usually verbalize intermediate future reasoning in text space: once visual evidence is verbalized, fine-grained motion, geometry, and interaction cues can be lost, leading to plausible but visually ungrounded hallucinations. We introduce Future-L1, an interleaved latent visual reasoning framework that lets an MLLM alternate between language tokens and continuous latent visual spans during autoregressive decoding. To train this capability, we construct Future-L1-50K by selecting examples where future visual hints help prediction and align latent states to future-frame embeddings, then further optimize sampled latent trajectories with LA-DAPO, a latent-aware RL objective with outcome-contrastive and temporal-diversity rewards. Future-L1 achieves new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks: on FutureBench, it improves Qwen3-VL-8B from 61.0 to 85.4 and exceeds the previous best Video-CoE by 10.4 points; on TwiFF-Bench, it improves the average score from 2.44 to 3.04. These results suggest that future-oriented video reasoning benefits from preserving intermediate visual semantics in latent space rather than translating every reasoning step into text.

Motion forecasting often requires trading interpretability for predictive accuracy. Standard anchor-based architectures rely on opaque latent queries that are highly prone to latent collapse, or naive trajectory sampling that limits multi-modal diversity. We propose an end-to-end differentiable framework that grounds predictions in a comprehensive "motion bank", a structured embedding space of physically realizable trajectories constructed via contrastive learning. Rather than regressing paths from a blank slate, our architecture dynamically retrieves explicit motion priors using a novel Anchor Retrieval Layer. This module adapts orthogonally initialized queries via a Dual-Level Gated Cross-Attention mechanism and executes discrete trajectory selection using a Straight-Through Gumbel-Softmax estimator to preserve continuous gradient flow. The retrieved semantically grounded anchors are then geometrically refined by a DETR-style decoder, optimized jointly with a Winner-Takes-All (WTA) kinematic Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), a latent diversity penalty, and a soft-min weighted endpoint loss. By strictly conditioning the decoding phase on diverse, interpretable motion primitives, our approach eliminates the "black box" of standard latent queries while achieving competitive multi-modal accuracy on the Argoverse 2 and Waymo Open Motion datasets. Code is available at: https://github.com/abviv/recall2predict