We introduce Predictive State Retrieval (PSR), a task in which a model observes a short video prefix and a temporal question about an object's future state, then retrieves instances from other videos or images that depict that state. Unlike action anticipation, which predicts a label, moment retrieval, which localizes an observed event within a video, or video generation, which synthesizes pixels, PSR combines anticipation with cross-instance retrieval across multiple temporal horizons. We construct a benchmark from four datasets with graded, human-validated ground truth, difficulty tiers, and an oracle ceiling. We also propose LFTR, a lightweight retriever with frozen encoders that predicts a question- and horizon-conditioned future latent and matches it in complementary semantic and visual spaces. A ceiling decomposition reveals a clear bottleneck: the true future state is highly retrievable once specified, whereas every predictor we evaluate, including a large multimodal language model with access to the prefix frames, remains far below the oracle. Thus, forecasting rather than perception is the central learnable challenge. LFTR narrows this gap at substantially lower inference cost, and ablations attribute its gains to cross-space fusion and hard-negative training rather than latent rollout. We release the benchmark, code, and evaluation scripts.
Acting in a physical scene requires knowing its real later state, not a plausible one. Current evaluations often accept words or a realistic-looking image, so the predicted state is never checked against the true one. We introduce DynaPix (Dynamic Pixels), a benchmark that makes prediction checkable. Given a video clip that stops before a key event and a question about a later moment, a model must pick the true future image from close candidates or a large gallery. The scenes come from a physics simulator, so the correct image and its time are known exactly and the wrong options are deliberately similar. Models often succeed when a visible event marks the target moment, but are near chance when only elapsed time marks it. Gallery search is harder still, as the true image rarely ranks first. People handle the elapsed-time items well, so the difficulty lies with the models, not the questions. Training on scene accounts drawn from the simulator's true record, not a teacher's guess, repairs much of this but not the longer elapsed time case. DynaPix thus exposes a temporal-anchoring gap: models attach a prediction to an event far better than to time itself.
Video event prediction (VEP) requires models to infer unobserved future states from partial video evidence. Existing video MLLMs usually verbalize intermediate future reasoning in text space: once visual evidence is verbalized, fine-grained motion, geometry, and interaction cues can be lost, leading to plausible but visually ungrounded hallucinations. We introduce Future-L1, an interleaved latent visual reasoning framework that lets an MLLM alternate between language tokens and continuous latent visual spans during autoregressive decoding. To train this capability, we construct Future-L1-50K by selecting examples where future visual hints help prediction and align latent states to future-frame embeddings, then further optimize sampled latent trajectories with LA-DAPO, a latent-aware RL objective with outcome-contrastive and temporal-diversity rewards. Future-L1 achieves new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks: on FutureBench, it improves Qwen3-VL-8B from 61.0 to 85.4 and exceeds the previous best Video-CoE by 10.4 points; on TwiFF-Bench, it improves the average score from 2.44 to 3.04. These results suggest that future-oriented video reasoning benefits from preserving intermediate visual semantics in latent space rather than translating every reasoning step into text.
Long-video understanding must capture transient visual evidence under strict token budgets, yet existing methods compress frames, append memory tokens, or alter internal key-value (KV) caches. We introduce Prefix-Steered Recurrent Memory (PREM), a memory-token-free framework for frozen vision-language models (VLMs). PREM separates video ingestion from query answering: a recurrent writer distills visual streams into a compact 256 KiB multi-slot associative state, while a question-conditioned readout adds memory-derived key/value (K/V) steering modulations to existing non-visual prompt prefixes during prefill. This enables write-once, query-many inference without extra prompt tokens or decoding recurrence. Across six long-video benchmarks in offline and streaming end-of-stream settings, PREM consistently outperforms frozen baselines at every evaluated visual budget. Under a constrained budget of 16 frames, PREM improves macro-average accuracy by 3.06% on Qwen2.5-VL-3B, with gains of 11.0% on action antonym identification and 9.9% on localized needle retrieval. These gains require tuning 0.24% of backbone parameters at 0.03 GiB of peak GPU memory overhead.