Multi-Year Geospatial Reasoning using Interannually-Consistent Historical Predictions as a Free Input Modality

Geospatial foundation models provide reusable representations of satellite imagery that support downstream mapping with limited task-specific modelling. We evaluate whether annual AlphaEarth embeddings support binary cultivated-versus-non-cultivated mapping in Maine, USA, using 192 spatially separated patches and labels derived from the USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL). Without fine-tuning the foundation model, a lightweight classifier reaches 93.7% overall accuracy and 90.8% balanced accuracy on held-out patches. Logistic regression is within 0.3 percentage points of a gradient-boosted ensemble, while a nearest-class-centroid rule, which uses class centroids but fits no parameters, reaches 90.2%. A balanced sample of 60,000 labelled pixels is within 1.3 percentage points of the full pool of 8.6 million pixels; because pixels are spatially autocorrelated, this result concerns pixel-sample efficiency rather than 60,000 independent annotation sites. In a same-region transfer experiment, classifiers trained in one year remain accurate across 2018 to 2023. Against a blind, two-interpreter consensus at 385 randomly sampled points in one contiguous 2023 block, the AlphaEarth-plus-random-forest map agrees at 95.3% ($κ=0.82$), compared with 91.7% for the CDL ($κ=0.72$; exact two-sided McNemar $p=0.0161$). This local result is consistent with partial smoothing of CDL label noise, but it does not establish statewide correction of the reference product. On the same points, the difference from a fine-tuned TerraMind segmentation model is not statistically significant (95.3% versus 93.5%; $p=0.14$), and the experiment is not a controlled comparison of computational cost. These results support frozen geospatial embeddings as a low-compute candidate for regional cropland mapping, subject to the limits of a single-state study, a 30 m-derived training reference, and a one-block human validation.

Field-scale crop maps support supply-chain forecasting and policy, yet statewide crop identification still often depends on retrospective surveys or remote-sensing workflows built around hand-engineered spectral features. Those pipelines can be accurate, but they require repeated preprocessing and often lose robustness across years. This study evaluated whether Google DeepMind's AlphaEarth geospatial embeddings can serve as an analysis-ready alternative for mapping processing tomato systems in California. LandIQ 2018 crop polygons were used to assemble a balanced reference dataset of 4,742 tomato and 4,742 non-tomato fields. For each polygon, 64-band AlphaEarth embedding chips were extracted and aligned with binary masks, then divided into spatially independent training (n = 6,638), validation (n = 1,422), and test (n = 1,424) sets. A U-Net segmentation model was trained on AWS SageMaker using a composite masked binary cross-entropy and soft Dice loss. To complement hard predictions, Monte Carlo dropout was retained at inference and repeated 100 times per chip to estimate predictive mean and variance. On the independent test set, the model achieved 99.19% pixel accuracy, 98.69% precision, 99.40% recall, 99.04% F1 score, 98.11% intersection over union, and 99.02% chip accuracy. Uncertainty maps were consistently highest near field edges and low within field interiors. The results show that AlphaEarth embeddings retain crop-relevant spatial and temporal structure and can support accurate, field-scale tomato mapping without manual feature engineering.

Remote sensing offers an unparalleled vantage point for observing the Earth's long-term surface evolution, yet it demands that a model not only perceive land cover at isolated moments, but also track changes, memorize evolution histories, and reason across time and space. However, existing studies lack a systematic evaluation that dissects these distinct competencies. To fill this gap, we introduce ChronoBench, a multidimensional benchmark that decomposes this task into four progressive cognitive levels (i.e., Land Cover Perception, Temporal Recognition, Long-Term Memory, and Spatio-Temporal Reasoning). The ChronoBench comprises 12 sub-tasks and 17,689 rigorously validated QA (Question-Answer) pairs. Extensive evaluations reveal that mainstream MLLMs fall drastically behind human experts, with Long-Term Memory emerging as the most critical bottleneck. Motivated by this finding, we further propose GeoChrono, an MLLM with enhanced capabilities for tracing, memorizing, and reasoning about long-term geographic evolution. Leveraging the physical prior that geographic parcels remain spatially fixed while their semantics evolve, we design a Temporal Trajectory Encoder~(TempEnc) that constructs per-location temporal trajectories for dedicated land cover evolution modeling, and we introduce a Coarse-to-Fine Token Compressor~(C2FComp) that adaptively preserves dynamic regions while compressing the static background. To support training, we also construct ChronoInstruct, a 104K-sample instruction-tuning dataset spanning all competency levels for training. GeoChrono achieves state-of-the-art performance on ChronoBench, surpassing the leading commercial MLLMs by over 20%, while C2FComp reduces visual tokens by over 56% while retaining GeoChrono's 94.6% performance. The code and data will be available at https://github.com/IntelliSensing/GeoChrono