CausalNav: Reliability-Certified Causal World Models for Control under Physical-Parameter Shift

In model-based reinforcement learning, world models exist as internal simulators, but their training often conflates statistical correlations with causal mechanisms. This problem is exacerbated in multi-agent systems where physical transitions are intertwined with strategic agent intents, causing world models to fail under distribution shift. We introduce Implicit Causal World Models to recover environmental dynamics from offline demonstrations without requiring pre-defined causal graphs. By incorporating policy variance, we render world models discoverable via the sequential backdoor condition. Evaluations across coordination tasks (Two-Door, Navigation, and Giveway) demonstrate that these models provide interpretable causal representations under both full and partial observability, with model accuracy scaling directly with interventional strength.

Causality in robotics aims to produce more interpretable and flexible robot behaviours by enabling robots to predict the consequences of their actions; however, deploying causal models with existing systems (e.g., navigation) operating in real environments remains understudied. This paper addresses the challenging problem of transferring causal models in real-robot experiments for a navigation scenario. We study this problem in two ways: (i) using the causal model as an offline evaluation module that predicts the competence of recorded real-robot navigation trajectories and relates it to quantitative navigation performance, and (ii) using the causal model as an online adaptation module that intervenes when the predicted competence of the default navigation is low. We validate our approach in a physical service robot that patrols around corridors. We show that the predicted competence correlates positively with path efficiency, and negatively with path irregularities (suboptimal behaviour). The model predictions also show strong agreement with human annotations (Cohen's kappa value of 0.88). In online experiments, the proposed method improves navigation performance in complex scenarios such as cornering and obstacle avoidance, yielding higher predicted competence and better navigation metrics than the default navigation baseline. In simpler scenarios, where the baseline already performs near-optimally, the causal adaptation provides limited benefit. These results indicate that causal models are particularly effective in enhancing navigation under increased task complexity. Overall, our results demonstrate that causal models developed for behavioural interpretation can be successfully integrated into real-robot navigation systems.

World models for embodied AI must be physically viable: constructed to answer intervention queries by representing the physical structure governing action outcomes, rather than merely predicting future observations. Existing observation-predictive world models can produce visually plausible but physically wrong rollouts. This failure is structural; distinct physical systems can look identical yet diverge under intervention. We expose this problem with controlled benchmarks that fix the visible scene while varying latent physics. We show that such models may recommend infeasible actions, mispredict interaction outcomes, or certify unsafe behavior. We argue that embodied AI requires world models that identify the simplest physical abstraction sufficient to answer an intervention query. Such a model comprises modular components, including environment representation, latent state and parameter estimation, action specification, interventional dynamics, and query-level response. An autonomous orchestrator should identify the relevant abstraction and compose compatible learned and structured components per query. When closed-form physics is unavailable, uncertain, or costly, the transition model may be analytic, simulated, learned, or hybrid, but it must preserve the structure that determines interventional outcomes. This decomposition makes the model interpretable, its components verifiable, and its outputs auditable against the query. It also provides a design principle for new world models and a feasibility test for existing ones: the right abstraction is not the most detailed model of the world, but the simplest model that preserves the distinctions relevant to the query. We demonstrate this approach on queries that existing systems fail to answer correctly, and outline how an orchestrator can dynamically assemble and adapt physically viable models for planning, control, and verification.