Decodable but Not Accessible: Auditing Distance-Based Reliability Estimation on Disentangled Skin-Lesion Representations

Class disentanglement (the separation of a representation's class-conditional point clouds along depth and over training) is usually read off descriptive curves. We measure it as certified topological interaction between labeled point clouds, using the recently introduced Intersection Euler Characteristic Profile: the Euler characteristic of the overlap of the clouds' ball unions as a function of scale, computed by one Alpha-complex sweep with no boundary-matrix reduction. Every number carries a test: exact permutation tests in both directions, a guarded separation certificate, and a paired test for the comparative claims applications make. Across 111 trained networks and 52,650 certified measurements, disentanglement is depth-graded and concentrated in the first epochs, and interaction quotients rank class pairs by confusability (Spearman rho=0.83), on par with cheap separability statistics. In a 96-model factorial population, augmentation is the one training choice that separates classes relative to chance; weight decay compresses the overlap without separating, and depth and width do nothing. The structural finding is one only a k-fold statistic can pose: the joint entanglement of a class triple sits below that of its strongest pair in 97% of triple-layer cells and 99.5% of deep cells, far below a measured null floor, in vision encoders and frozen language models alike. This pairwise dominance is a regularity, not a law: expected from the nesting of overlaps but not forced by geometry, present at initialization and in raw pixels, and manufactured in the last stage alone when a network memorizes random labels. The unnormalized profile mass predicts test accuracy (R^2=0.94), the quotient does not, and neither beats a linear probe. One lesson is reported in full: the paired test must use a scale-free statistic, or it certifies feature-norm dynamics as disentanglement.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness is difficult to diagnose when target-domain labels are unavailable. We consider a more restrictive source-only variant of unsupervised accuracy estimation: selecting robust checkpoints using only source-domain representations, with no target samples or target labels. We propose \textbf{TopoGeoScore}, a source-only geometric scorer for label-free OOD checkpoint selection. Given a trained checkpoint, we construct class-conditional mutual $k$-nearest-neighbour graphs from source embeddings and extract three interpretable signals: a torsion-inspired reduced Laplacian log-determinant for global class-manifold complexity, Ollivier--Ricci curvature for local neighbourhood regularity, and higher-order topological summaries for fragmented connectivity, loops, and global--local inconsistency. Instead of fixing their weights by hand, TopoGeoScore learns a non-negative linear score through a self-supervised objective that enforces invariance under approximately geometry-preserving embedding views and separation from structure-breaking views. The score remains interpretable and uses no target-domain samples or labels. Results across CIFAR-based corruption and distribution-shift benchmarks, ImageNet-C, MNLI$\to$HANS transfer, and OGBN-Arxiv suggest that source representations contain measurable global--local--topological evidence of robustness, supporting practical checkpoint selection before deployment under distribution shift.

Representational similarity analysis and related methods compare the internal geometries of neural networks, but they measure only alignment between spaces, leaving a blind spot -- whether a representation's structure is reliably recoverable, not merely similar. We introduce geometric stability, a distinct axis, and \textit{Shesha}, a metric that quantifies it from a single representation by correlating dissimilarity matrices built from complementary random halves of the feature dimensions. Unlike CKA and Procrustes distance, Shesha is provably non-invariant to orthogonal rotations of the feature basis. This is by design: the basis is privileged for learned models, since probes, patching, and steering act on coordinates, and a rotation-invariant metric cannot see whether the targeted structure survives them. A double dissociation isolates the mechanism -- removing the top principal component collapses CKA while Shesha holds, whereas rotating a representation into its eigenbasis, which preserves the spectrum and CKA exactly, collapses Shesha. Across 2,463 encoder configurations in seven domains, the metrics are redundant under geometry-preserving transforms and anti-correlate under compression ($ρ=-0.47$). Across 170 vision models spanning 6 clean and 38 corruption-shifted datasets, DINOv2 ranks first or second in transferability on three of six clean datasets yet bottom-quartile in stability on five, an isolated dissociation rather than a trade-off.