TennisVAR: A Stroke-Evidence-Grounded Multimodal Large Language Model for Tactical Reasoning in Tennis Videos

We built a multi-task pipeline for tennis stroke biomechanics from plain RGB video. On top of pose-based stroke recognition, it adds two new tasks, predicting shot direction and grading posture quality, plus a rule-based feedback layer that suggests coaching tips. Strokes are found automatically using a weighted joint velocity score, s(t) = 0.5 v_wrist + 0.3 m_elbow + 0.2 m_shoulder, removing the need for manual annotation. Pose comes from MediaPipe Pose Landmarker (33 landmarks, metric world coordinates), with each stroke turned into a 30-frame by 39-feature sequence for TennisTransformerGPU, a compact 564,103-parameter transformer (4 layers, 4 heads, d=128) with three parallel output heads. Trained on 1,281 labeled strokes from 7 pros and 1 amateur across 11 videos, it hits 83.7% stroke-type accuracy, 61.9% on direction, and 62.6% on posture under a random 80/20 split. The interesting test is cross-player: train on pros, evaluate on the amateur. Stroke type barely budges, 82.9%, a 0.8% drop. Direction prediction does not transfer; it just falls back to the majority class. An ablation shows why world coordinates matter so much here: switching to image-space landmarks tanks cross-player stroke-type accuracy from 83% to 47% and direction from 68% to 21%. Everything runs on Kaggle's free T4 GPU tier and is fully reproducible.

Video understanding is usually benchmarked on curated, single-actor, or professionally filmed clips, and a strong score there is routinely read as evidence a model is robust enough for deployment. Amateur team sport is a useful, largely untested place to check that assumption: over eight million students played a school sport in the United States in 2024-25 alone, almost none of it filmed by more than a single fixed camera, with several candidate actors crowded into frame and no operator or second angle to fall back on. Using volleyball as a test case, we ask whether strong performance on general video and world-model benchmarks translates into reliable, per-player attribution once footage is this chaotic, turning footage into statistics through a chain of tasks from finding play boundaries to naming who did what. We evaluate four approaches (prompting and agentic reasoning over frontier vision-language models, classical computer vision with small trained specialists, self-supervised video world models, and manual annotation) at every stage, on 66 amateur matches with 46,648 human-labelled contacts, filmed under conditions no published benchmark uses. No single paradigm wins every stage, and static, single-frame computer vision is not competitive at any stage involving motion or identity. A prompted model segments matches well, yet a far smaller trained model beats it at spotting contacts for a fraction of the cost, and the sport's own rules recover rally outcomes the pixels cannot. Identity is where every automated approach struggles: a jersey number is a static fact temporal reasoning cannot recover if never visible, unlike sporting action, a repeated motor pattern a temporal model can exploit, which is why holistic reasoning improves event detection while identity stays unchanged. We close with where each approach earns its cost, and what transfers beyond volleyball to amateur sport.

Sports videos are a challenging domain for multimodal understanding because they involve complex and dynamic human activities. Despite rapid progress in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), long-horizon reasoning in sports videos remains difficult, as answering questions requires both locating temporally sparse evidence and integrating it into reasoning. We attribute this limitation to two closely coupled factors: insufficient supervision over temporally dispersed evidence, and the lack of methods that require models to identify, localize, and justify temporal evidence. To address these gaps, we introduce SportsTime, a large-scale benchmark for long-form sports video understanding, comprising 14K+ open-ended QA pairs and 50K+ step-wise temporal evidence annotations. Building on SportsTime, we propose Chain-of-Time Reasoning (CoTR), which treats reasoning as a process of temporally grounded evidence composition. Specifically, during training, CoTR introduces a temporal-reward GRPO to encourage temporally grounded reasoning. During inference, it employs an anchor-observe-infer evidence-seeking loop to iteratively localize, verify, and compose temporal evidence before producing the final answer. Experiments demonstrate the usefulness of SportsTime as a benchmark and the effectiveness of CoTR, which consistently improves temporal compositional reasoning and step-wise grounding quality over strong MLLM baselines.