Online Inference for Quantile Temporal Difference Learning in Distributional Reinforcement Learning

In this paper, we study quantile-based distributional reinforcement learning from the perspective of statistical efficiency. We focus on distributional policy evaluation, whose goal is to characterize the return distribution, namely the distribution of discounted cumulative rewards under a given policy. To obtain a finite-dimensional representation of the return distribution, we consider the quantile fixed point $η_m$ induced by the quantile-projected distributional Bellman equation. Assuming access to a generative model, we construct an estimator $η_m^{(n)}$ based on an empirical Markov decision process. For a fixed number of quantiles $m$, we establish a non-asymptotic error bound for $η_m^{(n)}$ and $η_m$ under the supremum $W_\infty$ metric, showing that the estimation error scales as $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{m/n})$ with respect to $m$ and $n$. This implies that the quantile-based distributional policy evaluation problem can be solved with sample efficiency, achieving the optimal parametric $\sqrt{n}$ convergence rate. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the quantile parameters $\sqrt{n}(θ_m^{(n)}-θ_m)$ and characterize the semiparametric efficiency bound, which is attained by our estimator. Beyond the fixed-dimensional setting, we investigate the asymptotic regime in which the number of quantiles diverges. We characterize the limit covariance structure and show that it matches the semiparametric efficiency bound of the nonparametric model for distributional policy evaluation, showing that quantile-based estimators remain asymptotically efficient in the infinite-dimensional limit. Finally, we establish a Berry--Esseen theorem for smooth functionals $\sqrt{n}(η_m^{(n)}(s)-η_m(s))f$, thereby providing a foundation for statistically valid inference on functionals of the quantile-projected return distribution.

Quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD) is an effective method for learning return distributions through quantile approximation, yet its finite-time behavior remains poorly understood. Its update is nonlinear and nonsmooth, and the stability needed for a sharp convergence rate holds only near the target. We establish a global high-probability last-iterate guarantee for synchronous tabular QTD under general positive, nonincreasing step-size sequences and arbitrary initialization in the natural parameter range. For polynomially decaying step sizes with exponent $a\in(0,1)$, the last iterate converges to the target at rate $T^{-a/2}$ in the infinity norm, up to logarithmic and lower-order terms. A suitably tuned harmonic schedule recovers the $T^{-1/2}$ statistical rate up to logarithmic factors. For the $m$-quantile representation, its $\infty$-Wasserstein error scales as $\sqrt{m/T}$ up to logarithmic factors, matching the leading polynomial dependence on the quantile resolution and sample size of the corresponding model-based estimator. The proof uses a two-stage global-to-local argument. From arbitrary initialization, Bellman contraction and CDF monotonicity first bring the iterate close to the target, after which, a novel variance--drift matching argument sharpens the control of accumulated noise and local contraction reduces the remaining errors, yielding the sharp rate. Simulations verify the predicted polynomial decay and assess the finite-time entrance bound.

Quantile-based distributional reinforcement learning methods learn return distributions through sampled quantile regression, but their bootstrapped target quantiles may induce distorted or degenerate distribution estimates. We propose Robust Quantile-based Implicit Quantile Networks (RQIQN), a lightweight Wasserstein distributionally robust enhancement boosted from a quantile estimation perspective. We first reinterpret a snapshot of IQN loss as a collection of local empirical quantile estimation problems over sampled current fractions. We then robustify each local slot with a Wasserstein distributionally robust quantile estimation formulation, yielding a closed-form, fraction-dependent correction to the Bellman target. This correction directly addresses distributional degeneration: its median antisymmetry preserves the risk-neutral quantile average, while its monotonicity enlarges upper-lower quantile gaps and counteracts collapsed distributional spread. RQIQN thus regularizes quantile geometry without changing the underlying value objective or requiring additional sample set reconstruction. Finally, we empirically show that the proposed RQIQN outperforms other existing quantile-based distributional reinforcement learning algorithms in risk-sensitive navigation and Atari games.