cs.CLAug 14, 2026

Prompting is not enough: supervised baselines and leakage control for measuring shared decision-making with LLMs in pediatric encounters

Authors: Bernardo Modenesi, Jody Lin, Kimberly Kaphingst, Angela Zhu, Maya Wheeler, Peilu Zhang, Angela Fagerlin

Organizations: Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Utah Spencer Fox Eccles School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA · Kahlert School of Computing, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA · Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, University of Utah Spencer Fox Eccles School of Medicine, Salt Lake City, UT, USA · Department of Communication and Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Abstract

Objectives: To determine whether zero-shot prompting of a large language model (LLM) is sufficient to detect shared decision-making (SDM) behaviors in real clinical encounters, and whether supervised learning adds value under patient-grouped, nested evaluation. Methods: We analyzed 21 audio-recorded outpatient surgical decision encounters (19 unique patients; 7,566 utterance segments; ~6.1 hours) between families of children with multiple long-term conditions and their surgical providers. Trained coders labeled segments for 12 SDM behaviors (human-human macro Cohen's kappa = 0.695). We compared a zero-shot local LLM (Qwen 2.5 32B), a supervised classifier over frozen sentence embeddings, and their logistic stack, under patient-grouped outer folds with inner cross-fitted thresholds and patient-resampled confidence intervals. Results: The zero-shot LLM reached macro kappa = 0.139 (95% CI 0.111-0.164). The supervised classifier reached kappa = 0.227 (0.186-0.262), a paired improvement of 0.088 (0.051-0.119). A logistic stack of the two reached kappa = 0.242 (0.198-0.284). We identified multiple corpus-specific leakage paths, including grouping sibling recordings separately and allowing labels from an outer held-out patient to enter few-shot exemplars used while fitting downstream models. Conclusion: Zero-shot prompting alone is not sufficient to measure SDM behavior as reliably as a small supervised model, and patient-level grouping alone does not prevent leakage when labeled prompt exemplars are precomputed outside the outer evaluation loop. Reported performance is sensitive to the unit of data splitting and to where labeled exemplars enter the pipeline. External validation is needed before these findings generalize beyond this population, model, prompt, and codebook.

Figures & tables

Explore similar work

Jul 7, 2026

Measuring the practice of shared-decision making (OPTION12): An Investigation into Open-sourced Smaller LLMs (OS-sLLMs) for Better Privacy and Sustainability

We present LLM4SDM, the first study of open-source smaller language models (OS-sLLMs) for automated assessment of shared decision making (SDM) using the Observer OPTION12 framework. Unlike previous work that relies on large commercial models and the shorter OPTION5 instrument, our study focuses on privacy-preserving locally deployable models and Dutch melanoma consultation transcripts. Using expert-annotated clinical consultations, we evaluate three general-domain and two medical-domain OS-sLLMs during a development-phase pilot study. Results show that general-domain models outperform medical-domain models, which exhibit substantial hallucination and instruction-following failures. Gemma3:12b achieves the strongest agreement with human annotations (Pearson r=0.51, Spearman \r{ho}=0.59). Item-level and qualitative analyses reveal systematic challenges related to temporal discourse reasoning, conversational role attribution, and evidence grounding. We further introduce a Judge-LLM consensus framework designed to support disagreement resolution among multiple models. Our findings suggest that while current OS-sLLMs cannot replace human annotators, they offer a promising foundation for privacy-preserving human-in-the-loop SDM assessment.
Oct 3, 2026

Decide, Ask, or Defer: Clinical LLMs under Incomplete Evidence

Clinical LLMs must decide not only what diagnosis to produce, but also whether the available evidence is sufficient for autonomous decision making. Binary DECIDE/ABSTAIN formulations merge distinct non decision states and do not explicitly evaluate information acquisition. We introduce a DECIDE/ASK/DEFER formulation together with a blinded protocol that prevents models from using evidence completeness metadata. We evaluate Qwen, Gemini, and GPT on 200 matched clinical evidence states constructed from DDXPlus. The models show substantial differences in action selection under identical evidence, with disagreement in 137 of 200 states. For Qwen, a matched targeted versus random analysis shows that selected information changes the likelihood of a subsequent autonomous decision more clearly than diagnostic correctness. Its matched DECIDE/ABSTAIN baseline further reveals a safety autonomy tradeoff: the three action policy rescues some erroneous autonomous decisions but also removes some correct autonomous deci sions. These results show that separating information acquisition from clinician deferral exposes behavior that binary abstention hides, without yielding a uniformly improved decision policy.
Jun 3, 2026

Evaluating Large Language Models in Dynamic Clinical Decision-Making with Standardized Patient Cases

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as clinical agents, yet static, single-turn benchmarks cannot capture how a model dynamically delivers care across an encounter: gathering information, planning treatment, and adapting longitudinal management across successive patient states. Medical education has long addressed an analogous challenge through standardized patients (SPs): trained actors who consistently portray clinical cases, enabling realistic practice and objective, scripted assessment. Here we introduce MedSP1000, an SP-derived interactive benchmark for clinical-agent evaluation, including 1,638 SP cases with 24,602 trajectory-level peer-reviewed rubrics. MedSP1000 converts peer-reviewed SP teaching cases into executable scenarios with defined SP case scripts, clinical environment contexts, and human-validated structured rubric. In each simulation evaluation run, a clinical agent interacts in closed loop with a patient agent and an environment controller, and its behaviour is scored throughout the encounter against expert criteria specified in the original materials. Applying MedSP1000 to a range of general-purpose and medically specialized LLMs, we find that performance on static benchmarks does not reliably translate to such educational scenarios. The best-performing model, GPT-5.5, completes only 60.4% of expert-defined rubric items, whereas the strongest medically specialized model reaches 40.0%; increasing test-time compute produces no measurable gain. These results suggest that current LLMs, including agentic systems tuned for medicine, are not yet reliable enough to be safely integrated into actual clinical practice. More broadly, MedSP1000 shows how process-level, SP-style evaluation can reveal clinically relevant failure modes that single-turn benchmarks miss.