Identifying parameter couplings and uncertainties of mixed-noise stochastic systems via full-covariance Gaussian mixture network

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for random partial differential equations (PDEs) is ubiquitous in computational science and engineering. However, classical spectral solvers for this class of problems face the curse of dimensionality, and existing neural solvers often ignore the stochastic structure that makes moments and calibration tractable. We introduce a stochastic separable physics-informed neural network, dubbed S$^{2}$-PINN, that represents the solution $u(t,\mathbf{x},\mathbf{Z})$ of a random PDE with a learnable Gaussian spatial dictionary, Fourier temporal features, and a generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) stochastic basis, coupled by a low-rank Canonical Polyadic (CP) tensor decomposition core. The method is trained with a hybrid strong-form and gPC-projected residual loss. Our theoretical analysis establishes that the separable class is dense in $L^2$ under mild conditions, and the projected residual corresponds exactly to a stochastic Galerkin constraint. Furthermore, we show that mini-batch projection coefficients are logarithmically dependent on the number of gPC modes, and that the orthogonality penalty controls the conditioning of the learned spatial dictionary. Using four manufactured random PDE benchmarks, we show that S$^{2}$-PINN outperforms nine baselines in terms of mean and variance accuracy, as well as calibration, while using significantly fewer parameters. Further evaluations on non-manufactured Poisson and Darcy problems, a stochastic Navier--Stokes problem, a diffusion scaling study of higher random dimensions, and two stochastic inverse problems reveal the generalization capabilities of the proposed structure. Together, these results support stochastic separability as an effective design principle for physics-informed neural UQ. The code for the experiments can be found in https://github.com/DMax1314/s2pinn

We study the problem of recovering the parameters of a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process from steady-state observational and interventional data. In many applications, such as large-scale gene perturbation experiments, only stationary "snapshot" measurements are available, making standard stochastic differential equation estimation methods that rely on time-series trajectories inapplicable. We first establish an identifiability result: one intervention per strongly connected component (SCC) of the drift graph suffices to recover all OU process parameters generically up to a global scaling factor. This holds provided that the SCC condensation graph is connected with a single root and certain spectral nondegeneracy assumptions hold. We propose a recursive learning algorithm that orders SCCs topologically and, for each component, isolates its marginal dynamics and solves a linear system derived from the steady-state moment equations, leveraging parameters recovered for upstream components. Building on this theoretical foundation, we propose a regularized least-squares estimator that jointly minimizes residuals of the steady-state mean and covariance equations across observational and interventional data. Experimental results validate our theoretical findings in recovering parameters of the underlying OU process.

In this paper we derive a Probably Approximately Correct (PAC)-Bayesian error bound for partially observed linear time-invariant (LTI) stochastic dynamical systems in state-space form with inputs and sub-Gaussian noise. Such bounds are widespread in machine learning, and they are useful for characterizing the predictive power of models learned from finitely many data points. The bound derived in this paper relates the expectation of prediction errors with the prediction error generated by the model on the data used for learning. In addition, we show that it can also be used to derive bounds for the parameter estimation error. In turn, this allows us to provide finite-sample error bounds for the prediction error and parameter estimation error for a wide class of system identification algorithms. Furthermore, as LTI systems are a sub-class of recurrent neural networks (RNNs), these error bounds could be a first step towards PAC-Bayesian bounds for RNNs.