Monitoring Pasture Restoration from Satellite Image Time Series: Caveats and Opportunities

Monitoring nature restoration at scale is an important but difficult ecological problem. Deep learning methods to analyze satellite image time series (SITS) have been widely used for land surface monitoring. In semi-natural grasslands - the habitat type in focus in this work - restoration outcomes develop gradually, yet satellite observations are influenced by weather, acquisition conditions, and processing artefacts, making it difficult to distinguish genuine restoration signals from unrelated temporal variation. In this work, we examine - to the best of our knowledge, for the first time - whether restoration status can be detected directly from satellite image time series by formulating pasture restoration as a binary deep learning classification problem. We evaluate two common SITS deep learning architectures on different Sentinel-2 image combinations, across 1,397 restored Swedish pastures and find that explicitly modeling intra-year variability and per-pasture normalization increases separability, reaching 0.88 accuracy for the best model. We further investigate our results and perform a targeted bias analysis finding that reliable deployment requires temporally balanced labels and evaluation protocols that explicitly test for year-related confounding. We therefore frame our contribution not as a solved restoration-monitoring system, but as a realistic case study of what works, what fails, and what future studies should control for. Code and models are available at https://github.com/aleksispi/ml-nature-resto.