Against Political Polarization: A Unified Framework for Tracing Evolving Political Ideologies on Social Media
Organizations: Thrust of Artificial Intelligence, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China · School of Artificial Intelligence and Data Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
Abstract
The rapid growth of social media has greatly influenced political discourse, highlighting the need to understand individual political ideologies and their temporal dynamics. This task faces challenges such as data scarcity, abundant non-political content, costly and bias-prone manual annotation, and difficulty in modeling future ideological inclinations. To address these issues, we propose TSN4PI, a unified framework for tracking the evolution of political ideologies on social media. It includes two core modules. The PIDN uses large language models with style transfer and unsupervised domain adaptation to enable robust ideology detection and filter irrelevant content from noisy, cross-domain data. The PIPN employs temporal graph neural networks to predict future ideological shifts, enabling comprehensive analysis of ideology presence, intensity, and evolution. We release two large-scale datasets for noncommercial research use to facilitate further work. Extensive case studies on multiple platforms (X and Truth Social) validate the effectiveness of TSN4PI and provide empirical insights into political polarization and the evolution of online ideologies. Our findings offer a nuanced perspective, advancing both methodological development and empirical understanding in this field.
Figures & tables
| Rank | Left | Lean Left | Center | Lean Right | Right |
| 1 | trump (96,727) | people (130,164) | state (122,494) | president (54,261) | trump (60,993) |
| 2 | people (62,773) | president (96,049) | trump (121,089) | biden (45,403) | biden (50,717) |
| 3 | election (58,163) | state (94,501) | president (115,675) | house (42,055) | house (50,398) |
| 4 | republican (47,839) | new (92,173) | people (109,190) | new (41,471) | president (47,401) |
| 5 | even (47,647) | trump (88,297) | new (105,062) | state (40,075) | news (47,398) |
| 6 | president (46,673) | covid (86,424) | house (95,068) | congress (34,186) | people (40,715) |
| Dataset Name | Platform | Count | Users | Duration | Data Level | Theme |
| Dreaddit ( Turcan and McKeown, 2019 ) | 190k | N/A | 2017–2018 | Post | Social media stress | |
| Reddit Corpus ( Henderson et al., 2019 ) | 727M | N/A | 2015–2018 | Dialogue | Conversational AI | |
| Weibo-COV ( Hu et al., 2020 ) | Sina Weibo | >40M | 20M | 2019–2020 | Post | COVID-19 discourse |
| News Feed Rank. ( Boukhalfa et al., 2022 ) | 26k | 46 | 2021–2022 | News | Personalized ranking | |
| MetaHate ( Piot et al., 2024 ) | Mixed | 1.2M | N/A | N/A | Post | Hate speech detect. |
| IsamasRed ( Chen et al., 2024b ) | 8M | N/A | 2023 | Dialogue | Israel-Hamas discourse |
| Field | # of Records |
| Users | 454,458 |
| Truths | 823,927 |
| Quotes | 10,508 |
| Replies | 506,276 |
| Classification (F1 ) | Political Class Detail | Regression Error | |||||
| Model / Setting | Non-political | Political | Macro Avg. | Precision | Recall | MAE | RMSE |
| Cross-Model Scaling (0-shot) | |||||||
| Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct | 0.510 0.022 | 0.727 0.007 | 0.618 0.014 | 0.601 0.007 | 0.918 0.006 | 0.413 0.007 | 0.478 0.005 |
| Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct | 0.946 0.003 | 0.943 0.003 | 0.945 0.003 | 0.945 0.008 | 0.942 0.006 | 0.283 0.005 | 0.333 0.005 |
| Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct | 0.927 0.002 | 0.905 0.003 | 0.916 0.002 | 0.992 0.003 | 0.833 0.004 | 0.238 0.004 | 0.288 0.005 |
| Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct | 0.918 0.003 | 0.900 0.004 | 0.909 0.003 | 0.986 0.001 | 0.827 0.006 | 0.227 0.004 | 0.285 0.003 |
| Configuration | Acc. (Kind) (%) | MSE (Score) |
| Backbone Only | 97.79 0.15 | 0.0670 0.0012 |
| Backbone + UDA ( KL ) | 98.15 0.11 | 0.0350 0.0009 |
| Backbone + UDA ( MMD ) | 98.35 0.10 | 0.0320 0.0010 |
| Backbone + TST | 99.12 0.08 | 0.0060 0.0004 |
| Backbone + TST + UDA ( KL ) ( PIDN - KL ) | 99.25 0.07 | 0.0048 0.0003 |
| Backbone + TST + UDA ( MMD ) ( PIDN - MMD ) | 99.52 0.05 | 0.0057 0.0004 |
| Dataset | Model | Temporal | Link Prediction | Ideology Prediction | ||
| AP(%) | AUC(%) | Acc.(%) | MSE | |||
| Truth Social | GCN ( Kipf and Welling, 2017 ) | ✗ | N/A | N/A | 58.35 0.85 | 0.045 0.002 |
| GAT ( Veličković et al., 2018 ) | ✗ | N/A | N/A | 61.81 0.72 | 0.043 0.002 | |
| TGN ( Rossi et al., 2020 ) | ✓ | 99.25 0.08 | 99.14 0.09 | 72.42 0.35 | 0.036 0.001 | |
| JODIE ( Kumar et al., 2019 ) | ✓ | 99.73 0.04 | 99.69 0.05 | 66.28 0.41 | 0.039 0.001 | |
| APAN ( Wang et al., 2021c ) | ✓ | 97.56 0.15 | 97.24 0.18 | 65.14 0.45 | 0.036 0.001 | |
| User | Year | Representative tweet (truncated) | Score |
| 1 | 2009 | Is there such a thing as a “Lie Factory” ? If so, its obvious right-wing Republicans & their talking heads hold a great deal of stock in it. | 0.073 |
| 3 days left. Vote 4 my rescue group 2 save lives ! Retweet! | 0.369 | ||
| 2022 | As you know, currently the price per barrel of oil is $120 . In this chart, note how low the price has to be for corps to profit by drilling. It’s the greed . | 0.515 | |
| Next time a [Republican] points out that more have died from Covid under [President A] than [President B], remind them that correlation doesn’t equal causation . | 0.521 | ||
| This is where I want my taxes to go, investing in America and future generations . A population without access to higher education or drowning in debt cannot compete. | 0.319 | ||
| 2 | 2017 | There’s been some great addresses about #ScriptureStudy . What will you begin to study tomorrow? #[ReligiousConference] | 0.321 |
| Year | Left-leaning Topics | Center-leaning Topics | Right-leaning Topics |
| 2009 | [hcr, health, reform] [copenhagen, cop15] | [stimulus, job, economy] [hcr, health, reform] [iran, iranelection] | [spending, stimulus, govt] [hcr, gop, tcot] [iran, iranelection] |
| 2010 | [health, reform, hcr] [haiti, earthquake] | [oil, bp, oilspill] [haiti] [election, mn2010, tea, teaparty] | [hcr, obamacare, repeal] [tea, party, teaparty] [flgov, scott, spending] |
| 2011 | [egypt, libya] [medicare, cuts, deficit] [wiunion] | [debt, debtceiling, boehner] [egypt, mubarak, libya] [bin laden, pakistan] | [libya, nato, war] [wiunion, gov, walker] [debt, obama, gop] |
| 2012 | [waronwomen, women] [romney, mitt, returns] [health, medicare] | [obama, romney, debate] [syria] [gun, guncontrol, newtown, nra] | [libya, benghazi, attack] [obama, romney, debate] [gun, shooting, aurora] |
| 2013 | [standwithwendy, txlege, abortion] [gun, guns, guncontrol] [blacklivesmatter] | [snowden, leak, nsa] [boston, marathon, bombing] [shutdown, government] | [irs, lerner, targeting] [benghazi, cia] [syria, assad, military] |
| 2014 | [ferguson, police, racism] [acaworks, aca] [climate, change] | [ferguson, michael brown] [ukraine, russia, putin] [ebola] [mh370] | [isis, syria, iraq] [benghazi] [bridgegate, christie] [irs, lerner, emails] |
| Year | Left-leaning Topics | Center-leaning Topics | Right-leaning Topics |
| 2022 | [abortion, roe, wade, overturned] [uvalde, shooting, gun, control] [ukraine, standwithukraine, kyiv] [jan6, committee, hearings, insurrection] [maralago, raid, fbi] | [ukraine, russia, war, putin] [maralago, raid, fbi, doj, warrant] [roe, wade, overturned, supreme, court] [inflation, recession, economy, prices] [hunter, laptop, bidens, fbi] [2000mules, ballot, harvesting, fraud] | [inflation, gas, prices, bidenflation] [fbi, doj, raid, corruption, witchhunt] [border, crisis, migrants, illegal] [hunter, laptop, biden, crimefamily] [stoptheshots, diedsuddenly, pureblood] [abortion, prolife, unborn, baby] |
Appendix figures & tables5 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Characteristic | # of News Articles | # of Media Outlets |
| Total Articles/Outlets | 233,570 | 466 |
| Political Ideology | ||
| Center | 76,023 | 158 |
| Lean Left | 53,532 | 106 |
| Right | 45,506 | 75 |
| Lean Right | 32,555 | 62 |
| Metric | Time Complexity | FLOPs (Approx.) | GPU Bottleneck |
| MMD | Compute-Bound | ||
| KL Divergence | Memory-Bound |
| Classification (F1 ) | Political Class Detail | Regression Error | |||||
| Model / Setting | Non-political | Political | Macro Avg. | Precision | Recall | MAE | RMSE |
| Few-Shot for Qwen2.5-0.5B-Instruct | |||||||
| 0-shot | 0.510 0.022 | 0.727 0.007 | 0.618 0.014 | 0.601 0.007 | 0.918 0.006 | 0.413 0.007 | 0.478 0.005 |
| 2-shot | 0.568 0.132 | 0.717 0.035 | 0.643 0.082 | 0.629 0.094 | 0.855 0.061 | 0.297 0.055 | 0.364 0.054 |
| 4-shot | 0.607 0.132 | 0.751 0.051 | 0.679 0.089 | 0.662 0.126 | 0.901 0.088 | 0.330 0.031 | 0.395 0.038 |
| 6-shot | 0.577 0.098 | 0.750 0.032 | 0.664 0.062 | 0.622 0.040 | 0.951 0.052 | 0.305 0.016 | 0.367 0.018 |
| Classification (F1 ) | Political Class Detail | Regression Error | |||||
| Model / Setting | Non-political | Political | Macro Avg. | Precision | Recall | MAE | RMSE |
| Few-Shot for Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct | |||||||
| 0-shot | 0.918 0.003 | 0.900 0.004 | 0.909 0.003 | 0.986 0.001 | 0.827 0.006 | 0.227 0.004 | 0.285 0.003 |
| 2-shot | 0.949 0.022 | 0.941 0.029 | 0.945 0.026 | 0.992 0.003 | 0.896 0.054 | 0.219 0.007 | 0.273 0.011 |
| 4-shot | 0.955 0.009 | 0.949 0.011 | 0.952 0.010 | 0.994 0.001 | 0.908 0.021 | 0.216 0.002 | 0.271 0.007 |
| 6-shot | 0.963 0.014 | 0.959 0.017 | 0.961 0.016 | 0.991 0.004 | 0.929 0.034 | 0.235 0.025 | 0.299 0.032 |
Social Media Analysis
Social media analysis studies online posts, media, users, and interactions to understand communication, communities, and public behavior.
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