cs.CLAug 19, 2026

Test-Time Scaling in the Wild: Why Exploitation, Not Exploration, Is the Bottleneck

Authors: Davide Romano, Kanak Raj, Jerrod Parker, Daniele Giofrè

Organizations: Thomson Reuters Foundational Research, 5 Canada Square, London

Abstract

Test-time scaling (TTS) improves language model outputs by spending additional inference compute - generating multiple candidates, searching over partial sequences, or iteratively refining drafts. These techniques yield large gains on mathematics and code, but have been developed and stress-tested almost exclusively on tasks where verification is straightforward. We conduct the first compute-normalised comparison of five TTS families across five open-ended generation benchmarks spanning medicine, law, finance, general chat, and creative writing - grounded in a unified framework that decomposes the effectiveness of each method's token budget into exploration and exploitation. The answer depends on which side of that decomposition you examine. Scaling exploration works: the best candidate in the pool improves steadily with compute across all settings. What breaks is exploitation - the step that converts a rich candidate pool into a final output. With state-of-the-art generators, reward models correlate at only ρv≈0.12ρ_v \approx 0.12 with true quality, rendering selection near-random regardless of budget. Tree search amplifies this failure through diversity collapse. Refinement helps on one of five benchmarks; its apparent gains elsewhere are confounded. Only synthesis across candidates (Fusion) consistently improves over single-sample baselines, yet still recovers only ~40% of available quality. The candidate pool is not the bottleneck - choosing from it is.

Figures & tables

Appendix figures & tables65 assets

Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.

Appendix

Explore similar work

CardsList
  1. LLMs Improving LLMs: Agentic Discovery for Test-Time Scaling

    May 8, 2026Tong Zheng, Haolin Liu, Chengsong Huang +10LLM Inference EfficiencyAutomated Algorithm Discovery

  2. Test-Time Scaling for Scientific Equation Discovery

    Aug 21, 2026Haowei Lin, Hubert Lim, Xiangyu Wang +2Inference-Time SearchTest-Time Scaling

  3. Test-Time Personalization: A Diagnostic Framework and Probabilistic Fix for Scaling Failures

    May 9, 2026Linhai Zhang, Yulan HeReward ModelingReward Hacking