End-to-end Early Classification of Time Series in Non-Stationary Environments

Time series classification (TSC) is dominated by a two-stage paradigm: train a feature encoder -- either from scratch on the target dataset or via pretraining on large corpora -- and then fit a task-specific classifier on top. While effective, this decoupling optimizes representation learning independently of the classification objective, requires per-dataset training, and prevents the model from exploiting label information during inference. We introduce TimEE, a 4.5M-parameter foundation model for end-to-end TSC via in-context learning. Given a labeled support set and a query time series, TimEE directly outputs a predicted class distribution in a single forward pass with no per-dataset training required. Following the prior-data fitted network (PFN) framework, TimEE is meta-trained exclusively on synthetic TSC tasks, where each task contains time series with distinct class identities arising from structured distributional shifts in the generative process. Despite seeing no real time series during pre-training, TimEE ranks first in ROC AUC (and third on accuracy) on the UCR benchmark among all compared methods, which include both foundation models and supervised deep learning baselines. To our knowledge, TimEE is the first purely synthetic-pretrained model to reach state-of-the-art performance on the UCR benchmark. These results establish end-to-end ICL with synthetic priors as a compelling, largely unexplored direction for TSC, with scaling, prior design, and richer generation mechanisms as natural avenues for improvement. Code is publicly available at http://github.com/automl/timee.

Non-stationary time series forecasting is challenged by evolving distribution shifts that static models struggle to capture. While Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures offer a promising paradigm for decoupling complex drift patterns, existing approaches are limited by fixed expert pools and memoryless routing, hampering their ability to adapt to abrupt regime shifts. To address this, we propose Dynamic TMoE, a framework that unifies architectural evolution with temporal continuity during learning phase. By detecting distribution shifts via Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), we dynamically instantiate heterogeneous experts and prune redundant ones to optimize capacity. Additionally, a temporal memory router leverages recurrent states and an anomaly repository to ensure stable, context-aware expert selection without requiring test-time updates. Experiments on nine benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, reducing MSE by 10.4% and MAE by 7.8%. Code is available at https://github.com/andone-07/Dynamic-TMoE.

Learning robust representations for time-series signals under noise and distribution shifts remains challenging, especially in clinical applications such as electroencephalogram (EEG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis. We propose Diffusion-Conditioned Representation Alignment (DCRA), a training framework that repurposes the forward diffusion process as a structured corruption scheduler for representation learning. Different from conventional augmentation and consistency-based methods that rely on independently sampled perturbations, DCRA introduces a structured corruption trajectory via the diffusion forward process, which enables continuous and controlled representation evolution across noise levels. We introduce a feature-level consistency objective that aligns representations across noise levels while preserving class-discriminative structure. This mechanism promotes structure-preserving consistency, which enables smooth and semantically coherent feature trajectories in latent space. The proposed framework is encoder-agnostic and can be integrated with state space models and Transformer architectures. The seizure detection experiments on the CHB-MIT EEG dataset show that DCRA consistently improves performance under multiple noise conditions and achieves higher sensitivity at low false-positive rates. Analysis reveals that DCRA produces more balanced and structured representations compared to baseline and diffusion-only models. These findings highlight the benefit of combining structured corruption with representation alignment for robust time-series learning.