SAE-Xplainers: Rule-Based Feature Interpretation for Extreme Earth Events

Deep learning weather prediction models achieve remarkable predictive skill yet remain largely opaque: we know little about how they represent physical climate phenomena internally. Mechanistic interpretability through Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) offers a principled route to decomposing these representations, but existing SAEs assume strictly linear feature superposition - a constraint ill-suited for the highly nonlinear atmospheric dynamics encoded in modern transformers. We introduce KAN-SAE, a sparse autoencoder whose encoder replaces the standard ReLU with learnable per-feature B-spline activations drawn from Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), allowing each latent dimension to develop its own nonlinear gating profile. Applied to Sonny, KAN-SAE discovers 975 alive features (vs. 566 for a linear baseline, a 72% improvement) with 20% lower inter-feature redundancy and comparable reconstruction fidelity. Without any climate supervision, KAN-SAE identifies an interpretable European heatwave feature spatially concentrated over western Europe, and a western Pacific typhoon tracker confirmed by causal steering experiments. Our results demonstrate that nonlinear activations are essential for mechanistic interpretability of deep learning weather prediction models, recovering climate features that remain invisible to linear baselines.

The wide-scale use of sparse autoencoders (SAEs) as interpretability tools is limited by inconsistent links between SAE features and model behavior. Features with clear activation descriptions may have weak or unexpected causal effects; steering can vary across prompts or oppose the intended direction; and activation-based feature selection can miss features that produce the desired output change. Prior work has studied feature geometry inside the model, where features are computed. We instead study the geometry of changes in model logits caused by feature interventions. We introduce Feature-Effect Geometry Analysis (FEGA), an unsupervised framework that removes the same active SAE feature across contexts and analyzes the resulting cloud of logit changes. Across SAE variants, consistent one-dimensional effects are rare: few features behave like reusable directions. To interpret this variation, we distinguish value-like features, tied to static information such as factual attributes, from pointer-like features, associated with context-dependent operations. Value-like features more often exhibit structured, low-dimensional effects, although these effects typically span several directions. Pointer-like features, by contrast, predominantly exhibit diffuse effects. Our results show that a feature can be interpretable and causally relevant without providing a stable direction for steering.

Although Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) have mitigated the opacity of large language models (LLMs) by decomposing dense representations into sparse features, explaining these features still remains a central challenge. Current explanation methods, however, typically operate within an open-loop paradigm, failing to leverage mechanistic feedback for further refinement. In this paper, we propose SAEExplainer, a training framework that utilizes activation scores as an objective reward signal to train the model for self-correction and iterative bootstrapping. By iteratively verifying and correcting foundational explanations through a two-round optimization process, SAEExplainer achieves continuous improvement in its explanatory capabilities. This mechanism significantly reduces explanation hallucinations and reinforces causal triggering patterns. Extensive experiments demonstrate our approach improves upon established baselines across most metrics, especially in causal triggering and discriminative activation. The code is available at https://github.com/he-jingyi/SAEExplainer.